Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
230 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2001

WIDELY SCT TSRA DEVELOPING OVR CTP ATTM. THE FRONT OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED OVR SE PORTION OF OUR CWA EARLIER HAS
DSPTD.  AGREE WITH BGM THAT THE REAL "FRONT" IS N OF THE THRUWAY AND
DRAPES FROM THERE SW ACRS LAKE ERIE. THERE IS A WEAK SFC LO OVR IPT
WITH A TROF/WSHFT LINE DRAPING FROM THERE SW INTO THE GULF.

SATELLITE SHOWS IMPRESSIVE SWIRL OFF VA CAPES. BUT BUOYS SHOW NO LO.
THIS SYSTEM IS ALL UP LVL AND IS STALLING FRONT TO OUR N. SINCE THIS
UP LO HAS NO CONNECTION TO THE SFC THE DRY AIR WILL LIKELY REMAIN N
OF THE LAKES AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT TO OUR N.

MESO ETA SHOWS STRG LO LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVR PA THIS AFTN
PEAKING AROUND 21Z. THIS DEVELOPS INTO AN ARC WITH STRONG LO LVL
MOISTURE DIVERGENCE BEHIND IT BY 00Z B4 DSPTG AFTER SS. WILL LEAVE
CHC OF TSRA IN TONIGHT AS ETA AND AVN SHOW ANOTHER WEAK S/W MOVG SE
THRU PA AT 12Z SUN.

ONCE THE S/W DEPARTS SUN AM...THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS BACK INTO PA
AND CAPS US. THIS WILL END THE AFTN TSRA REGIME WE STARTED WED. WITH
THE SFC RDG OVR US BY MON TEMPS IN VALS WILL TOP 90 ONCE AGAIN WITH
UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

IN THE EXTENDED...MOS SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEWPT DRYING SO HI HUMIDITY
LVLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MAKE A PASS AT US TUE EVE BUT IF AVN IS CORRECT ONLY SFC TROF AND
VORT MAX PASS AND NOT THE ACTUAL FRONT. THAT REMAINS N OF THE NY
THRUWAY AGAIN. THE MRF SHOWS NO RELIEF IN SIGHT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

.CTP...NONE.

HEAD