Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2001

COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF UPR LOW OVER ERN CAN PUSHING INTO NW
PA ATTM. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ATTM BECOMING MOST
ORGANIZED IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. EARLIER TODAY EXPECTED ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSTORMS TONIGHT AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING OVER UPR RIDGE INTO PA BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z. BUT GIVEN THAT
POSTFRONTAL AIR HAS ENTERED NW PA...WHAT IS FIRING NOW WILL BE THE
MAIN ACTION WITH ONE W TO E LINE OVER SRN PA AND ANOTHER OVER
CENTRAL INTO NE PA.

HOWEVER VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME KIND OF WAVE INITIATING
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER SE ONT. WHILE THESE STORMS MAY MOVE SE... THE AMS
IT WILL MOVE INTO...AT LEAST OVER PA...WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO SIG
STORMS LATER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL SCT SHWRS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH WORDING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALL ZONES...SEVERE WORDING FOR
SRN PA COUNTIES IN WATCH BOX.

COOLER TOMORROW THOUGH MOS GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW ARE SIG WARMER THAN
WHAT WE HAD BEEN THINKING LAST SEVERAL DAYS. PLAYED IT THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD. TOMORROW SHOULD FEEL COOLER THAN TODAY BUT MAY NOT BE AS
COOL AS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. UNDER COOL TEMPS ALOFT AFTN INSTABILITY
SHOWERS MAY BE PREVALENT SO KEPT 30 POP FOR ALL DAY ON WED NOT JUST
MORNING.

EXTENDED...
CONTINUE PVS THINKING WITH QUIET WEATHER. COOL TEMPS TO START THEN
MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON TUE...COLD FRONT POISED TO THE NW OF
PA SO INCLUDED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH PC SKIES.

.CTP...SVR TSTM WATCH FOR SRN HALF OF CWA UNTIL 9PM.

GARTNER

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-102130-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1032 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2001

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...

A SOUTHWEST WIND IS USHERING IN WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR TO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...
SOME OF WHICH MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENMING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

GARTNER/RXR

PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066-110045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2001

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR
MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

ADAMS...BEDFORD...BLAIR...CAMBRIA...CUMBERLAND...DAUPHIN...FRANKLIN
...FULTON...HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA...LANCASTER...LEBANON...MIFFLIN...
PERRY...SCHUYLKILL...SOMERSET...AND YORK.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL
LARGER THEN THREE QUARTERS O[F AN INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THE WATCH AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

ONDREJIK