Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
215 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2001

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...WITH A WSW FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND A WNW FLOW BEHIND. HOWEVER SFC DEW PTS ARE ALREADY
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE SUSQ VLY EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LOWER 70S POISED OVER THE OHIO VLY FROM DAY TO PKB. DESPITE NO
QPF FROM THE ETA EXPECT EXPECT SCT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MORE LIKE WHAT THE AVN IS PREDICTING. K
INDICIES ARE PROGGED TO BE VERY HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATING AMPLE MOISTURE DESPITE SOME MID-LVL CAPPING.
WITH MIDLVL WINDS PROGGED TO 40 KTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SLIGHT
SVR RISK LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THE THREAT
FOR PRIMARILY STRONG WINDS. WILL GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FWC MAXES
FOR HIGHS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS...BASED ON ETA LOW-LVL
TEMPS AND EXPECTED PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MTNS.

FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WEST...AND ACROSS THE
EAST DURING THE EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COLD ADVECTION AND
DRYER AIR MOVING IN...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME LOW CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU DURING THE MORNING...THEN SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE CYCLONIC VORTEX
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA.

IN THE EXTENDED PDS...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AS COOL CANADIAN HI PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF CONTINUED DRY WITH
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE AND
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.

.CTP...NONE.

MSE

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-101445-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
415 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2001

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...

A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL USHER IN WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR TO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS. WINDS
ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING THE FAST WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

ROGOWSKI/DANGELO/EVANxS