Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER TO KEEP FFA GOING WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN
OCCURRED YESTERDAY.  CURRENT VISIBILE SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER CWFA WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY.
STORMS ARE FIRING UP WELL TO THE NORTH IN BIG COUNTRY...AND WEST
OVER MEXICO WHERE INSTABILITY AND THETA-E AXIS RESIDE.  AT THIS
TIME...FEEL POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OVER THE SATURATED AREAS WILL HAVE TO
COME FROM THE STORMS WHICH FORM NORTH AND WEST OF AREA...THEN ADVECT
INTO AREA LATER TONIGHT AS ALL FOCUS AND ENERGY IS TO THE NORTH.

WITH LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD RELATIVELY WEAK AND CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...THIS MAY BE HARD TO DO THIS FAR EAST AS 850MG-300MB
THICKNESS GENERALLY SHOW WEST TO EAST MOTION.  THUS...CONFIDENCE FOR
RAIN OVER AREA CHANCE AT THIS TIME.  WILL WRITE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH POPS AOB 30% WILL NOT ISSUE FFA AT THIS
TIME.  SINCE CONVECTION IF IT GETS THAT FAR...WILL BE OVERNIGHT WITH
LIMITED WIND FIELD...WILL ALSO DO THE SAME WITH THE MENTION OF
SEVERE.  HOWEVER...IF RADAR LIGHTS UP IN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN WILL
GO THE OTHER WAY AS SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING TO GO AND CAPES HIGH.
SPS WILL HANDLE BOTH.

ELSEWHERE...WILL KEEP THE POPS THE HIGHEST OVER WEST AND NORTH...
WHERE BEST POTENTIAL IS BASED ON INSTABILITY AXIS AND THETA-E
RIDGE...AND DECREASE OVER THE EAST.  INSTABLITY REMAINS HIGH FOR
TOMORROW BUT ONLY FOCUS WILL BE SEA-BREEZE INTERACTION AND
THUS...POPS HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST AGAIN.  WEAK FRONT MAY TOUCH OUR
NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY BUT WILL GENERALLY BE TOO WEAK TO BE A PLAYER
IN ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.  RIDGE BUILDS IN AFTER TUESDAY SO NO
RAIN EXPECTED.  POSSIBLE FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY MAY BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY.

PRELIMS...1ST PERIOD CHANGES POSSIBLE BASED ON LAST MINUTE TRENDS...
CRP EE 073/086 070/085 068 22221
NGP    074/083 072/083 071
ALI EE 073/089 069/087 066 22221
VCT EE 069/085 066/083 065 32221
LRD EE 073/092 071/088 072 33332

MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK...SO WILL KEEP MAR FORECAST
DRY AFTER MONDAY.

.CRP...NONE.

86/GW...84/JMC

TXZ229>234-239-247-070400-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
401 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2001

...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
HOWEVER...THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.

ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. IF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAIN THEMSELVES...THEY
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SINCE THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...PRODUCING WINDS NEAR 55 MPH AND HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF
DIMES.

FURTHER EAST OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS...THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AGAIN...WITH THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
ALSO...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LOW...AS THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND NOT REMAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS.

RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER TONIGHT
FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES.  YOU CAN ALSO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP