Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
304 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

SHORT TERM...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...LOCAL
MSTR AND INSTABILITY...WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TDA.
THUS...WL MAINTAIN THE FFA OVER THE CWFA FOR TDA. EXPECT BRN VALUES
IN THE SUPERCELL RANGE LATER TDA. FURTHER...MID LVL DRYING WL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED
SAT HWR EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR TO DECREASE SIGNFICANTLY AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS NWD.

EXTENDED...DRIER ASSOCIATED WITH AN N-S UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE
IMMEDIATE EAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CWFA AND MINIMIZE PCPN CHANCES
SUN.  A SFC COLD FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS
THE NRN CONUS...IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWFA BY LATE MON-TUE.
UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO ARE PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA
MON-TUE. HWR...NOT CONFIDENT THAT MSTR WL BE SUFFICIENT AND WL LEAVE
OUT PCPN MON-TUE. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PROGD TO AFFECT
THE CWFA WED-THU AND WL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY THEN.

MARINE...WILL KEEP SCA GOING OFFSHORE AS WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS...
GRADIENT STILL GOOD TO 850 MB AND SEAS AROUND 7 FEET.  BAYS/INLAND
MAY BE A LITTLE BELOW THE CRITERION AT TIMES...BUT WILL KEEP SCA
GOING AS EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO KEEP MARINERS IN PORT WITH
HIGHER SEAS AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING.  THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS BACK TO WEST
ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS...SO PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISH.  WINDS ALSO SUBSIDE.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD
REMAIN PRECIP FREE WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.  AT THIS
TIME...FEEL RAIN CHANCES TOO LOW FOR TUESDAY TO MENTION AS UPPER LOW
TOO FAR TO WEST.  MWS WIBIS TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT OF THUNDER TODAY.

CRP TE 079/066 079/063 080 87654
VCT TE 078/063 078/061 079 87654
LRD TE 081/068 081/067 082 87553

.CRP...FFA TXZ229>234-239>247 TDA.
       SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275.

87 (SYNOPTIC)
86 (MARINE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI,TX
227 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

120 AM    AT FREER                  TX   .88 INCH HAIL
11/16/01   DUVAL                          DIME TO PENNY-SIZED HAIL

105 AM    2 SE MATHIS               TX   FLOOD
11/16/01   SAN PATRICIO                   FM 188 AND CR35 WATER OVER
                                          ROAD...ROAD
                                          CLOSED.

GW