Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
245 PM CST THU NOV 15 2001

VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS RICH MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TX...WHERE PRECIP WAS ONGOING.  ANOTHER
BAND OF STRONG STORMS WAS MOVING INLAND ALG THE WARM FRONT FROM
CALHOUN TO GONZALES COUNTY. STRONG VEERING WINDS AND DAY TIME
HEATING RESULTING IN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ATTM. CURRENT TOR WATCH
WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z. SPC MONITORING S TX FOR ANOTHER WW LATER THIS
AFTN.  BELIVE DRYING OUT WEST WILL MAINTAIN STORM DVLPMT ACROSS
CNTRL COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG DIFLUENCE ALOFT
ENHANCING ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LVL JET DIMINISHES
TONIGHT AS CLOSED UPR LOW BEGINS TO RETREAT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND HEAVY RAIN.  WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS
THROUGH FRI...THEN WILL DIMINISH SAT AS DRY RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION FROM NE.  WILL EXAMINE FFA AND MAY DROP WEBB COUNTY WHICH HAS
NOT SEEN ANY RAINFALL YET.

WEATHER QUIETS DOWN SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...FORCING DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING. THIS WILL BRING
A DRY COOL FRONT INTO S TX MON.  UPR TROF FINALLY OPENS UP AND
TRACKS ACROSS TX WED WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SLGT CHC
PRECIP. SFC TROF AXIS WILL POSITION INTO OUR CNTRL ZONES
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH NICE CONDITIONS OUT WEST AND SLGT CHC PRECIP
EAST.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THRU SAT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
MAKING FOR COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS SAT NGT-TUE.

MARINE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SCEC CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRI. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY
DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. SHOULD
SEE DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

CRP TB 068/078 064/076 060 77230
VCT TB 067/076 060/075 055 55220
LRD TE 067/080 063/076 061 55341

75/71

.CRP...FFA ZONES TXZ229>234-240>247.

TXZ229>234-239>247-160300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 AM CST THU NOV 15 2001

...SLIGHT THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
BEND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BECAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
UNSTABLE AND THE WIND SHEAR IS STRONG...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR TODAY HOWEVER IS FLOODING. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS BRINGING
A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION AND BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

TXZ230>234-243>247-160000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1224 PM CST THU NOV 15 2001

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST...

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ARANSAS...BEE...LIVE OAK...
NUECES...CALHOUN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA...MCMULLEN...SAN PATRICIO...
AND GOLIAD COUNTIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA IS CAUSING A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE TORNADOS...PERSONS SHOULD
BE AWARE OF THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE HAIL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI,TX
247 PM CST THU NOV 15 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0247 PM    GEORGE WEST               TX   TORNADO
11/15/01   LIVE OAK                       SHERIFF DEPT REPORTED
                                          TORNADO ON GROUND IN
                                          TOWN.

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI,TX
251 PM CST THU NOV 15 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0353 PM    10 W BEEVILLE             TX   TORNADO
11/15/01   BEE                            TORNADO ON GROUND ALONG FM
                                          799 AND LIVE OAK COUNTY
                                          LINE.