Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1000 AM CST THU NOV 15 2001

ATMOS OVER SOUTH TEXAS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS MORNING. 12Z
CRP SOUNDING REVEALED CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND PWATS 1.50 INCHES.
CURRENT DOPPLER VAD WIND PROFILE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG VERT WIND
SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE HIGHER TODAY VERSES YESTERDAY...THEREFORE
OUR HAIL THRESHOLDS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER. SPC CONSIDERING A WW FOR
OUR AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

RADAR ALREADY SHOWING CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE MOISTURE/THERMAL
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE LOW OVER THE WRN HILL COUNTRY. WV
SHOWS SPOKE OF VORTICITY SWINGING THROUGH...12Z MODELS SHOW STRONG
OMEGA DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE REGION CENTERED ALG THE MOISURE
AXIS. THEREFORE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ARE LIKELY. CURRENT FCST
LOOKS GOOD. FFA IS IN EFFECT WITH MAIN FOCUS AREAS OVER JIM WELLS
AND NORTHERN LIVE OAK COUNTY...WHERE 8-16 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY.

HYDROLOGY...MAIN POINT OF CONCERN IS ATASCOSA RIVER AT WHITSETT AND
NUECES AT THREE RIVERS. LATEST RFC FCST CALLS FOR A MAJOR FLOOD AT
THREE RIVERS AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST PACKAGE.

75/71

.CRP...FFA ALL ZONES TXZ229>234-239>247.

TXZ229>234-239>247-160300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 AM CST THU NOV 15 2001

...SLIGHT THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
BEND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BECAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
UNSTABLE AND THE WIND SHEAR IS STRONG...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR TODAY HOWEVER IS FLOODING. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS BRINGING
A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION AND BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

TXZ230>234-243>247-160000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1224 PM CST THU NOV 15 2001

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST...

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ARANSAS...BEE...LIVE OAK...
NUECES...CALHOUN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA...MCMULLEN...SAN PATRICIO...
AND GOLIAD COUNTIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA IS CAUSING A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE TORNADOS...PERSONS SHOULD
BE AWARE OF THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE HAIL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP