Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 162101 AAA
FFSBRO
TXC061-215-261-489-162200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
257 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM...
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR STARR COUNTY CANCELED...

AT 300 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE
INDICATED HEAVY RAINS MOVING FROM HIDALGO COUNTY ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ONE
HOUR RAIN RATES WERE TWO AND THREE INCHES. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO REGENERATE CONVECTION. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ROAD FLOODING HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN MCALLEN AND THE SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.

$$

MILLER

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 162206
FFSBRO
TXC061-215-261-489-162245-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
359 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM...

AT 400 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE
INDICATED HEAVY RAINS MOVING FROM HIDALGO COUNTY ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ONE
HOUR RAIN RATES WERE TWO AND THREE INCHES. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO REGENERATE CONVECTION. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS COULD
BE OF PARTICUALR CONCERN TO INTERESTS ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND.

$$

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 162240
FFSBRO
TXC061-215-261-489-162300-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
435 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES WILL BE
EXTENDED UNTIL 545 PM...
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR HIDALGO AND KENEDY COUNTIES ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 445 PM...

AT 430 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE
INDICATED HEAVY RAINS MOVING ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INTO WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES...AND THEN TO SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND
OFFSHORE. ONE HOUR RAIN RATES WERE NEAR THREE INCHES. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
REGENERATE CONVECTION. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS COULD BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
TO INTERESTS ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND.

$$

MILLER

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
900 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

.DISCUSSION...TODAYS WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE
COMPLICATED BY THIS AFTERNOON.  A POTENT 5H UPPER LOW OVER WEST
TEXAS CONTINUES TO SPIN...FEEDING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS ALSO PUMPING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.  HEAVY RAIN CELLS TO THE NORTH HAVE BEEN
BACK BUILDING INTO ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES THIS MORNING...
PROMPTING A FLOOD WARNING FOR THOSE COUNTIES.

THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING EXHIBITS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
PWAT OVER 1.5 INCHES...COMBINE THIS WITH AN LI OF -7.5 AND A CAPE
OVER 3000.  CLEARLY THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR FUELING DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE CURRENT QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH INTO THE CWA THE
HEAVY CONVECTION WILL MOVE.  THIS MORNINGS ETA MODEL SHOWS THE TAIL
OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE CWA...WHICH IS
ENCOURAGING UPWARD MOTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONGEST PVA
WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL
TX...HINTING THAT SOME CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TO THE NORTH LATER
ON THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...THE CURRENT RUN OF THE RUC MODEL
APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THE SOUTHWARD MOTION OF THE MCS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYS WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...BUT BELIEVE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN...THUS WILL RAISE POPS OVER THE CWA AND INCLUDE MENTION
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WELL AS ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
CWA.

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE...TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 6 FEET...SO WILL GO WITH SCEC NOW INSTEAD OF SCA.

COORDINATION...52.WCM/PUBLIC-SYNOPTIC-AVIATION-MARINE...54.BHM-CAM/
MESO...60.TS-55.MM

.BRO...FFA TXZ248>257.

TXZ248>257-161900-

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 4 PM...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ABUNDANT UPPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO MOST OF TEXAS TODAY. THE MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE COASTAL BEND AREA TODAY HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN THREATEN
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...THE LIGHTER SURFACE
WINDS...AND THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON HEATING WILL MAKE CONDITIONS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
VERY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM
ANY INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER...FOR LATER STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SPEECE/MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1000 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0959 AM    10 N SAN YGNACIO          TX   FLOOD
11/16/01   ZAPATA                         REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER  WATER OVER
                                          U.S. 83.