Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
900 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

.DISCUSSION...TODAYS WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE
COMPLICATED BY THIS AFTERNOON.  A POTENT 5H UPPER LOW OVER WEST
TEXAS CONTINUES TO SPIN...FEEDING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS ALSO PUMPING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.  HEAVY RAIN CELLS TO THE NORTH HAVE BEEN
BACK BUILDING INTO ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES THIS MORNING...
PROMPTING A FLOOD WARNING FOR THOSE COUNTIES.

THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING EXHIBITS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
PWAT OVER 1.5 INCHES...COMBINE THIS WITH AN LI OF -7.5 AND A CAPE
OVER 3000.  CLEARLY THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR FUELING DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE CURRENT QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH INTO THE CWA THE
HEAVY CONVECTION WILL MOVE.  THIS MORNINGS ETA MODEL SHOWS THE TAIL
OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE CWA...WHICH IS
ENCOURAGING UPWARD MOTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONGEST PVA
WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL
TX...HINTING THAT SOME CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TO THE NORTH LATER
ON THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...THE CURRENT RUN OF THE RUC MODEL
APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THE SOUTHWARD MOTION OF THE MCS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYS WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...BUT BELIEVE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN...THUS WILL RAISE POPS OVER THE CWA AND INCLUDE MENTION
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WELL AS ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
CWA.

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE...TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 6 FEET...SO WILL GO WITH SCEC NOW INSTEAD OF SCA.

COORDINATION...52.WCM/PUBLIC-SYNOPTIC-AVIATION-MARINE...54.BHM-CAM/
MESO...60.TS-55.MM

.BRO...FFA TXZ248>257.

TXZ248>257-161900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
500 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

...ISOLATED INTENSE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INTO MOST OF TEXAS TODAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AND THE COASTAL BEND AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN THREATEN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...THE LIGHTER SURFACE
WINDS...AND THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON HEATING WILL MAKE CONDITIONS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM.

IN ADDITION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND LATER THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER...FOR LATER STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SPEECE/MCGUIRE

TXZ248>257-161900-

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 4 PM...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ABUNDANT UPPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO MOST OF TEXAS TODAY. THE MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE COASTAL BEND AREA TODAY HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN THREATEN
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...THE LIGHTER SURFACE
WINDS...AND THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON HEATING WILL MAKE CONDITIONS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
VERY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM
ANY INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER...FOR LATER STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SPEECE/MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1000 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0959 AM    10 N SAN YGNACIO          TX   FLOOD
11/16/01   ZAPATA                         REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER  WATER OVER
                                          U.S. 83.