Severe Thunderstorm Warning 289, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
1008 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

UPPER LOW OVER NCNTL TN THIS MORNING...CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOLY
WWD.  BMX 12Z SOUNDING APPEARS FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH LARGE LAPSE
RATES AND AMPLE AMOUNTS OF CAPE EXPECTED BY AFTN.  GIVEN THIS...WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW...MAINLY FROM BHM NWD. CURRENT ZONES FOR THE MOST PART
APPEAR OK...BUT WILL PROBABLY LOWER POPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
FA THIS AFTN TO 30%...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER FROM SELMA TO AUB ON NRN
PERIPHERY OF CURRENT BKN CLOUD FIELD.  TEMPS LOOK OK...BUT MAY MAKE A
COUPLE OF MINOR CHANGES PRIOR TO RELEASE.  UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.  66

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>038-040>050-262300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...JUST TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA...WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS MOISTENED UP FROM YESTERDAY AND BECOME MORE UNSTABLE...AS
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT HAS SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LESSER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...WITH SOME
DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. ALSO...THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE
EASTWARD AT LESS THAN 10 MPH...THUS BRINGING THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING WITH THE LARGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMA OFFICIALS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF DEVELOPING WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION...AND BE
ESPECIALLY PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL WITH A FEW OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL FACTOR:
HUNTSVILLE IS 3,
BIRMINGHAM IS 3,
MONTGOMERY IS 2,

1 BEING THE LOWEST...AND 5 THE HIGHEST THREAT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION AND A UDESCRIPTION OF WHAT IS A WET MICROBURST,
SEE OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BMX/HWO.HTML.