Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
231 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2001

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER COLUMBUS MS
TO NEAR BIRMINGHAM TO GADSDEN. NORTH OF FRONT AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS TN VALLEY. THIS AREA OF STORMS HAD
MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN TN AND SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA.
RADARS INDICATING NOTHING BACK BEHIND THIS AREA AND WILL BASE 1ST
PERIOD POPS THIS AREA MAINLY ON RADAR AT ISSUANCE. ALONG AND SOUTH OF
BOUNDARY...WHERE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...LACK OF CLOUDS
ALLOWED FOR GOOD WARMING. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA IN THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SEVERAL WARNINGS FOR THIS AREA.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES THIS RUN.
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES SLIDES EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY
MONDAY AND ALONG CANADIAN COAST BY TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA. SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. BY MONDAY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PUMPS GOOD GULF MOISTURE
INTO FORECAST AREA. WITH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY IN PLACE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

HSV 066/083 068/083 067 4434
BHM 068/087 070/083 069 8445
MGM 070/090 071/086 071 5435

.BHM...NONE.

83

ALZ001>038-040>050-040000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2001

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM RUSSELLVILLE
TO HARTSELLE TO FORT PAYNE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA...IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT...IS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTENING...LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE...BUT CERTAIN PARAMETERS ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 90. A LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BY THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORMS...BUT IF ANY
DEVELOP THEY COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
SHOjULD NOT BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL FACTOR:
HUNTSVILLE IS 1
BIRMINGHAM IS 4
MONTGOMERY IS 5