Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
1055 AM CDT SUN JUN 03 2001

AREA RADARS INDICATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN/MIDDLE TN
WEAKENING AS THEY REACH NORTH AL BORDER.  FEW SHOWERS SPREADING
SOUTHWARD CURRENTLY...BUT OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION WILL IN
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  15Z OBS/MSAS ANALYSIS
INDICATE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG LINE FROM NEAR TUP-HSV-CHA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING GOOD GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. HAD UPDATED EARLIER THIS MORNING TO UP POPS IN NORTHERN
AREAS TO LIKELY AND WILL LEAVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CHANCE POPS
TCL-BHM-ANB pAND SOUTH LOOKS GOOD. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS.

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>038-040>050-031430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
730 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2001

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

A FRONT EXTENDS EAST TO WEST JUST ALONG THE NORTHER BORDER OF
ALABAMA. THE UPPER WINDS DO NOT PROVIDE MUCH PUSH FOR THE FRONT SO IT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR MOVE SOMEWHAT NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM ARKANSAS WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT AND PRODUCING PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE...
DECREASE STABILITY...AND THEREBY ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...POSSIBLY
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD NOT BE
NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ALZ001>038-040>050-040000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2001

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM RUSSELLVILLE
TO HARTSELLE TO FORT PAYNE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA...IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT...IS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTENING...LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE...BUT CERTAIN PARAMETERS ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 90. A LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BY THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORMS...BUT IF ANY
DEVELOP THEY COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
SHOjULD NOT BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL FACTOR:
HUNTSVILLE IS 1
BIRMINGHAM IS 4
MONTGOMERY IS 5