Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
259 PM CDT WED APR 04 2001

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AFTERNOON FORECAST PRODUCTS ANTICIPATED.

GENERAL PATTERN OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING SOUTHEASTWARD...ACROSS
COMPLEX COLLECTION OF BOUNDARIES...CONTINUES.  A BIT OF A DEBATE ON
THE END OF IT ALL.  PRECIP LINGERS WELL INTO THURSDAY ON THE AVN...
WHILE ETA BRINGS PRECIP TO AN END MUCH TOO PREMATURELY BY 00Z
TONIGHT.  BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...WILL END WITH
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TN VALLEY.
BEYOND THAT...GOOD MID-LEVEL WARMING LOOKS TO SET UP A CAP...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY.  STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW
WEAKER SHOWERS TOMORROW AT THIS POINT.  IN SPITE OF EASTERLY FLOW...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE A GOOD JUMP TOMORROW...WITH REDUCED CLOUD
COVER AND PLENTY OF DAYLIGHT.  SUSPECT LAST MINUTE TWEAKS WILL NEED
TO BE MADE TO PACKAGE...INCLUDING APPROPRIATE WATCHES...BASED ON SPC
INPUTS...AND RADAR TRENDS.  LEANING TOWARDS ALLOWING FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO EXPIRE...AS MOST OF REMAINING RAIN SHOULD BE ONE SHOT AND
MOVE ON.

IN THE EXTENDED...RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHING NW AL SAT...THEN RETREATING.  IF MRF HOLDS SWAY...PRECIP
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA.  BUT FOR NOW...WITH HEAT AND GULF
MOISTURE AROUND...WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS THEMES.

PRELIMINARY TEMPS...POPS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  81

HSV 058/072 058/078 058 5331
BHM 060/073 059/079 061 7431
MGM 060/076 059/081 062 7432

.BHM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
       SOUTHWEST ALABAMA UNTIL 4 PM...
    ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
       UNTIL 4 PM...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1223 PM CDT WED APR 04 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0845 AM    12E MOUNDVILLE            AL   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   HALE

850 AM     EMELLE                    AL   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   SUMTER

1155 AM    PICKENSVILLE              AL   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   PICKENS

1217 PM    CARROLLTON                AL   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   PICKENS

1220 PM    REFORM                    AL   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   PICKENS

ALZ001>038-040>050-042200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
145 PM CDT WED APR 4 2001

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

A MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD ALABAMA WILL HELP TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THE AIRMASS IS
MOST UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.  CONSEQUENTLY...
THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR GENERALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65...AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 59...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL AROUND 6 PM.

DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OR
TORNADOES ARE NOT CONSIDERED A MAJOR THREAT.  THE STORMS SHOULD
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST OVER ALABAMA...AND ADDITIONAL
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA.  FLOODING OF STREETS AND ROADS IS A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND EARLIER TODAY.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS VIA STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATH>ER SERVICE.