Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
355 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2001

LATEST WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...COLD
FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH IN WAKE OF FRONT. COMBINATION
OF STRONG INSOLATION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND APPROACHING WAVE
HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS CWA.

MORNING SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ETA IS WEAKER
THAN AVN...BOTH WITH SHORTWAVE INITIALIZATION AND FORECAST.
FURTHERMORE...ETA MOVES WAVE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...WHILE AVN SPLITS WAVE...WITH MAJORITY OF
ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND REMAINING
ENERGY ALONG TEXAS/NEW MEXICO LINE. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY SPLITTING
OFF TO THE EAST APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE LINE OF STORMS FROM NEAR CANADIAN TO NEAR AMARILLO
WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH AND THIS MAY BE WHAT THE AVN MODEL WAS
TRYING TO HINT AT. IRREGARDLESS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEM
A GOOD BET TONIGHT AND WILL GO WITH AREA QUALIFIERS. CONSIDERING
WEAK SHEAR/PULSE TYPE STORMS...THINK THAT MICROBURST WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH WAVE EXITING SOUTH
OF THE AREA...CONTINUED UPSLOPE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS WILL
MOST LIKELY BE A RESULT OF REMNANT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PERSISTING
THROUGH THE MORNING.

DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
DESPITE MODELS INDICATING NEAR NIL POPS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DO DEVELOP OR MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST...IT IS STILL AUGUST AND EVEN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW HAS ITS
SURPRISES. FLOW ALOFT IS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH EVEN LESSER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INTO THE PANHANDLES. THEREFORE...REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED.

THANKS LBB FOR COORDINATION.

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

JH

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-252100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM COLORADO. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TO HELP
FUEL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

MOISTURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...INSTABILITY...AND TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT TO SET
THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

GOEHRING