Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2001

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON LATEST WV IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER CENTRAL CO
SUGGEST A GOOD COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS WAVE. CLOSER TO HOME...A
1008MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR KGUY IN THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT STRETCHED FROM SW KS INTO NW MO.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO SE
CO THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND UPPER LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION...A FRONT
WILL SLIP INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH RICH MOISTURE AND INCREASING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO
RAISING POPS FOR TODAY. WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS NORTH...RAMPING
DOWN TO CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH. PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE AS IT/S LOCATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE MASKED BY OUTFLOW FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ETA LOOKS A LITTLE FAST AND WILL TREND A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN IT/S SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT WITH
THE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AND EASTERLY FLOW INCREASING. CAN NOT
RULE OUT PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY EITHER WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL...UNSTABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR THE EXTENDED...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND SEE NO REASON TO
CHANGE RIGHT NOW.

THANKS TO DDC AND ABQ FOR COORDINATION.

PRELIM CCF...
AMA 90/62 84/59 87 463
DHT 88/60 82/57 85 652

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATT

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-252100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM COLORADO. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TO HELP
FUEL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

MOISTURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...INSTABILITY...AND TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT TO SET
THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

GOEHRING