Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
145 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2001

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. AT UPPER-
LEVELS...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN COLORADO WAS MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND JET ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE POINTED TO PROBABLE STORM INITIATION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. EXPECT SOME
OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE MOVING TOWARD AND INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS DIFFER AS TO STORM
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST. THE ETA AND RUC DEVELOP CONVECTION
AGGRESSIVELY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE AVN DRY. FAVOR THE ETA/RUC SOLUTION (PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC) WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND VORT MAX IN NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AS NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE...STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION CONTINUING TO HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL UPGRADE TO A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEW AVN
DEPICTING MORE DETAIL IN THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN EARLY IN
THE WEEK. A LEE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING AND A BIT DRIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

AMA 67/93 65/90 63 423
DHT 62/89 61/87 61 422

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

CB

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-232100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
105 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2001

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

BOUNDARIES ALREADY EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CREATE LIFT
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EASTWARD IN NORTHERN KANSAS WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. AT THE MID LEVELS...
A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLY STORMS MAY BE
PRESENT LATER THIS EVENING AND TRIGGER MORE STORMS WHICH COULD
INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ESPECIALLY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

WYNNE