Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
305 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2001

WORKZONES AVAILABLE.

.DISC...ONCE AGAIN IN SVR MODE...MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
YESTERDAY...AND PROBABLY JUST GETTING GOING. HAVE TWO WATCH
BOXES...ONE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND ONE JUST ISSUED FOR MOST OF
THE CWA. SCATTERED STORMS GETTING GOING EAST OF LAKE GEORGE...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND THE CD. COLD FRONT STILL TO OUR WEST...WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY JUST PASSING THROUGH KALB. ANTICIPATE AN EARLIER...RATHER
THAN LATER SHOW...AS THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US THIS EVENING. LF QUAD OF H2.5 JETLET
APPROACHING REGION...ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GOOD
DIVERGENCE AND GOOD UVM. CAPES ARE RANGING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH...OUR WEATHER WILL SLOWLY SETTLE
DOWN. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE RACING SEWD THROUGH THE LONDON PLAIN OF
ONTARIO MAY REFIRE SOME SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING...SO WILL AT
LEAST INCLUDE A SMALL POP FOR THE NIGHTIME HOURS FOR ALL ZONES.
ATMOS SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR JUST SHOWERS. (GO BELOW THE LKLY
THRESHOLD OF THE MAV).

THEN...YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY AIR MASS WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF CANADA...GETTING AIDED BY THE
CHILLY WATERS OF HUDSON/S BAY. WILL COME IN TWO PIECE MEAL SHOTS.
THE FIRST WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE SECOND...WILL COME WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE TOMORROW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH CAPE (500-1000 J/KG) TO WARRANT A
CHANCE OF THUNDER...ALBEIT SMALL BY WED AFTERNOON. WITH WET BULB
READINGS IN THE 6 KFT...THESE COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION NOW.

THE CORE OF THE COOL AIR MOVES IN FOR THU. COLD POOL AT H5 STAYS
JUST TO OUR N...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PLENTY STEEP ENOUGH FOR
LOTS OF INSTABILITY CLOUDS AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS. WILL
HOWEVER...CONFINE SHOWERS TO MOUNTAIN AREAS FOR NOW...ON THUR. H8
TEMPS 4-6C...ABOUT AS COOL AS IT GETS FOR MID JULY.

.EXTENDED...SLOW MODERATION EXPECTED. EASTERN TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH...HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE OVER OUR PARTS. LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS FROM CANADA...TO HOPEFULLY BRING A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

.ALY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 700 PM EDT NYZ033-042-033
       SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 800 PM EDT NYZ041-047>054-
       058>061-NYZ063>066
       SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 800 PM EDT VTZ013-014
       SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 800 PM EDT MAZ001
       SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 800 PM EDT CTZ001

HWJIV

CTZ001-MAZ001-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-VTZ013-014-
112000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
910 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN
NEW YORK AND NEARBY NEW ENGLAND...

A DISTURBANCE PRODUCED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE...MAY PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
ALOFT WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY COOL...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
OF HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.

WHILE MOST HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SMALL...RANGING FROM PEA-SIZE OR LESS...THERE IS THE OUTSIDE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE HAIL MAY BE A LITTLE LARGER. IN
ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SEEK
SHELTER AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE.

HWJIV

CTZ001-MAZ001-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-VTZ013-014-
102000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1140 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN NEW
YORK AND NEARBY NEW ENGLAND...

A COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL LIKELY SPAWN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL AS WELL AS
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND 30 MPH.

A THUNDERSTORM IS DEFINED AS SEVERE WHEN IT CONTAINS WIND GUSTS THAT
REACH OR EXCEED 58 MILES AN HOUR...OR IF IT HAS HAIL THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH...OR MORE...IN DIAMETER.

IF YOU SEE THREATENIvNG WEATHER...SEEK SHELTER AT ONCE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE VOICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR FURTHER UPDATES....INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.

HWJIV