Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2001

UPDATED ZONES AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

.DISC...ALL FAIRLY QUIET ALONG THE WESTERN FRONT FOR NOW. COLD
FRONT...JUST ABOUT TO MAKE THE CROSSING FROM CAN INTO WRN NY...IS
MOVING ABOUT 30 MPH...A TAD FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
PREFRONTAL TROUGH...IS OUT WELL AHEAD THE MAIN...ALREADY TO OUR
EAST. NOT EVEN MUCH IN THE CU FORMING YET...BUT ONCE THE CAP IS
BROKEN...STORMS SHOULD BLOSSOM SOMEWHAT...POSSIBLY EVEN FORMING A
LINE OR TWO. RECALCULATED MAGLENTA EQUATION STILL INDICATES A MINOR
SVR EVENT (WITH A VALUE AROUND 3.2). HOWEVER CAPES OFF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS FORECAST TO RISE TO AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG. SPEED
DIFFERENTIAL SHEAR EVIDENT AND ALY RAOB ALREADY SHOWS 50 KT FLAG TO
ABT THE H5 LVL...WHILE KBUF RAOB HAS 50 KT TO NEARLY H6. THEIR RAOB
INDICATES VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT...CLOSE TO 80 KTS AT H2.5.
ACCORDING TO THE 12Z MESO-ETA JET MAX AT THE SAME LEVEL OVER MI IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH.

WE PLAN TO STAY THE COURSE REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL UPDATE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS...

1) TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF EARLY FOG.

2) TO TWEAK TEMPS UPWARD IN A FEW SPOTS.

3) TO REGROUP ZONES (DID NOT LIKE THE ORIGINAL CONFIGURATION).

4) TO REDEFINE THUNDERSTORM DESRCIPTION...BUT KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH
THE SAME AS BEFORE.

.ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.

CTZ001-MAZ001-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-VTZ013-014-
112000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
910 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN
NEW YORK AND NEARBY NEW ENGLAND...

A DISTURBANCE PRODUCED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE...MAY PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
ALOFT WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY COOL...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
OF HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.

WHILE MOST HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SMALL...RANGING FROM PEA-SIZE OR LESS...THERE IS THE OUTSIDE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE HAIL MAY BE A LITTLE LARGER. IN
ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SEEK
SHELTER AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE.

HWJIV

CTZ001-MAZ001-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-VTZ013-014-
102000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1140 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN NEW
YORK AND NEARBY NEW ENGLAND...

A COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL LIKELY SPAWN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL AS WELL AS
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND 30 MPH.

A THUNDERSTORM IS DEFINED AS SEVERE WHEN IT CONTAINS WIND GUSTS THAT
REACH OR EXCEED 58 MILES AN HOUR...OR IF IT HAS HAIL THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH...OR MORE...IN DIAMETER.

IF YOU SEE THREATENIvNG WEATHER...SEEK SHELTER AT ONCE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE VOICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR FURTHER UPDATES....INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.

HWJIV