Severe Thunderstorm Warning 325, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2000

EAST/WEST BAND OF RAIN/CONVECTION REMAINS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  BAND OF PRECIP CURRENTLY STRETCHING ROUGHLY
ALONG A TUL-FYV LINE AND LIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
WHILE CONTINUING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE TONIGHT WITH WAA PATTERN AND JUNKY
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUING.  MAIN ACTION THOUGH WITH
WESTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OUT TOWARD THE PANHANDLES BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS THROUGH TOMORROW OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SQUALL LINE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.  THIS TIMING IS GENERALLY BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE ETA AND THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE AVN.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS RAIN CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE.  HAVE SOME 48 HOUR TOTALS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA...SO
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES CONTINUING TO LOWER.

WILL THEN KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DRY BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND
THE NEXT SCHEDULED TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY.

DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR LOWS AND LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS.

FCSTID = 4
TUL   63  73  62  75 /  50  50  70  40
FSM   62  74  62  75 /  40  40  70  60
MLC   62  75  62  76 /  40  50  70  40
BVO   62  73  60  75 /  50  50  70  30
FYV   57  72  58  72 /  50  40  70  60
BYV   57  72  58  72 /  50  40  70  60
MIO   60  72  60  74 /  50  40  70  40
MKO   63  73  62  75 /  50  50  70  40
F10   63  73  62 5 75 /  50  50  70  40
HHW   62  77  62  77 /  40  40  70  50

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
425 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2000

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR ZONE ALONG I-40.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS EVENING ALLOWING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.

AS THESE STORMS SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST...ISOLATED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE RQEQUIRED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
536 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0420 PM    3 SW MILFAY               OK    1 INCH HAIL
10/27/00   CREEK                            SPOTTER REPORT

0427 PM    DEPEW                     OK    .88 INCH HAIL
10/27/00   CREEK                            SPOTTER REPORT

2