Severe Thunderstorm Warning 324, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2000

EAST/WEST BAND OF RAIN/CONVECTION REMAINS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  BAND OF PRECIP CURRENTLY STRETCHING ROUGHLY
ALONG A TUL-FYV LINE AND LIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
WHILE CONTINUING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE TONIGHT WITH WAA PATTERN AND JUNKY
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUING.  MAIN ACTION THOUGH WITH
WESTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OUT TOWARD THE PANHANDLES BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS THROUGH TOMORROW OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SQUALL LINE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.  THIS TIMING IS GENERALLY BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE ETA AND THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE AVN.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS RAIN CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE.  HAVE SOME 48 HOUR TOTALS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA...SO
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES CONTINUING TO LOWER.

WILL THEN KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DRY BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND
THE NEXT SCHEDULED TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY.

DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR LOWS AND LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS.

FCSTID = 4
TUL   63  73  62  75 /  50  50  70  40
FSM   62  74  62  75 /  40  40  70  60
MLC   62  75  62  76 /  40  50  70  40
BVO   62  73  60  75 /  50  50  70  30
FYV   57  72  58  72 /  50  40  70  60
BYV   57  72  58  72 /  50  40  70  60
MIO   60  72  60  74 /  50  40  70  40
MKO   63  73  62  75 /  50  50  70  40
F10   63  73  62 5 75 /  50  50  70  40
HHW   62  77  62  77 /  40  40  70  50

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2000

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT DEEP
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS RESULTING
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP AGAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE ACROSS THIS AREA.  ALSO WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN RE-DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO
THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE SQUALL LINE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE SO THE EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKEWISE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST INTO ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT BUT STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AT oTHAT TIME.