Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1030 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2000

AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY COVERS MOST OF
THE AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.  INDIVIDUAL STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING
EAST...TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS...PRODUCING A CONSIDERABLE FLASH
FLOODING PROBLEM IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA.  THE CAP
HAS KEPT STORMS FROM FIRING ON THE FRONT SO FAR...BUT AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING
CONTINUES TO LIFT THE INVERSION...THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF
THE CURRENT AREA WILL LIKELY HAPPEN.  BOTH THE 00Z ETA AND NGM SHOW
A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WATCH AREA.
CONTINUE FFATUL THROUGH THE NIGHT.  POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

AS FOR THE ZONES...ALREADY UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS SOUTH
OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.  MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS IN A FEW ZONES.

FCSTID = 19

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES ;OKZ054>064...
OKZ067.

OKZ054>062-064>067-090243-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
843 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2000

...UPDATE FOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS...

THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS OSAGE COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE STALLED FRONT WHICH AT 8PM EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN CRAIG
COUNTY...ACROSS NORTHERN TULSA COUNTY AND INTO CREEK COUNTY.  AS
THESE STORM APPROACH THE FRONT THEY WILL BECOME MORE SURFACED BASED
IN NATURE AND BEGIN TO TAP THE WARM AND HUMID SURFACE AIR.  AS THIS
OCCURS THE STORMS MAY TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.

IN ADDITION...NEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.  IF THESE
STORMS FORM THEY COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS AS WELL.

OKZ054>062-064>067-090800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1100 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2000

...UPDATE FOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS...

A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

OUTFLOW AIR FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS BEGUN TO
FORCE THE STALLED FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH...HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MAKE
ONLY SLOW PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
NEAR FAYETTEVILLE TO NEAR MCALESTER BY EARLY MORNING. EVENING
SOUNDING INFORMATION INDICATED THAT THE CAP WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE
NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM AIR.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 3AM AS A SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND OVERRUNS THE FRONT.  AFTER 3AM THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUT4HWESTERLY AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE STORMS EXPECTED.

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH
STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.