Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
307 PM CST FRI NOV 3 2000

HEAVY FLOODING RAINS OCCURRED OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
CWFA SINCE THIS EVENING...WITH BRADY...MENARD...AND JUNCTION AREAS
SEEING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN...SOME PLACES MORE. EXTENSIVE FLOODING
WAS OCCURING ON ROADWAYS AND TRAVEL WAS BEING DISCOURAGED. HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUED IN EASTERN SECTIONS FROM JUNCTION SAN SABA AT 21Z. RIVER
FLOODING WAS ALSO OCCURING ON THE LLANO AND SABA.

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SATURATED WITH 12Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT MIDLAND...DEL RIO...AND
FORT WORTH AT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WYOMING TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A TROPICAL
PLUME EXTENDED ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE ITCZ INTO
TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED MOVING INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY.

WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. DONT HAVE CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES COMPLETELY FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
WHEN MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY ON TUESDAY.

WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
HARD TO KEY ON EXACT LOCATION OF RAINFALL...AS WEAK FRONT THAT WAS IN
CENTRAL TEXAS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF ADDITONAL
RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWFA WILL AGGRAVATE
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

ABI 059/065/057/70 +744
SJT 060/066/059/70 +855
JCT 061/068/059/69 +855

.SJT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-032300-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
223 PM CST FRI NOV 3 2000

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
TONIGHT...

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERRIDE A COOL SHALLOW AIRMASS OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH WEAK ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING. EXCESSIVE RAINS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN THE NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY...NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HEARTLAND.  THIS AREA INCLUDES
THE SONORA...JUNCTION...MASON...MENARD...BRADY...AND SAN SABA AREAS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE EXCEEDED 6 INCHES IN SOME CASES. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED DUE TO FLOODING..

THIS OUTLOOK WILL RESUME SCHEDULED ISSUANCE ON MARCH 15 2001.
HOWEVER... THIS OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED AS NEEDED WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

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