Flash Flood Warning 59, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
229 AM CST FRI NOV 3 2000

PREPARING FOR MORE RAIN.  PEEKING AT WATER VAPOR LOOP...TRACKING AN
EXTREMELY LONG PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...STRECTHING WEST TO THE
PACIFIC ITCZ SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII.  THIS MOISTURE IS SURGING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THIS JUICY AIR IS RIDING
OVER A RESIDUAL...SOMEWHAT HARD TO IDENTIFY...SURFACE FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  KSJT AND KDYS 88DS ARE LIT UP LIKE CHRISTMAS
TREES WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP GOING ON.  WITH AN UPPER RIDGE LOCKED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROF
SHOULD NOT SLIDE EAST...AND MODELS GIVE ALL INDICATION OF A
SOUTHWEST DRIFT AS IT INTENSIFIES...HELPED ALONG BY A 100 KNOT SPEED
MAX ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE.  WITH NO MOVEMENT IN THE ORIENTATION
OF THE TROPICAL PLUME...NO SUPPORT TO PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT OUT OF
THE AREA...AND AN EXPECTED WARM AND JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SEE
MORE RAIN IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE.  TIMING OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IN PINPOINTING PRECIP...BUT A
SNEEZE IS ALL THE LIFT NEEDED TO TAP INTO THIS MOIST AIRMASS.
BASICALLY...WILL EXTEND AND EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING...
NOW INCLUDING ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
AND THE PRECIP...DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL REMAIN SMALL.

PRELIMS

ABI 068/058/067/052 +754
SJT 069/059/067/054 +865
JCT 070/061/070/059 +865

.SJT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

RIVER FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN SABA...LLANO AND THE
COLORADO RIVER (BALLINGER SOUTHWARD) THROUGH THIS EVENING.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-031600-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
536 AM CST FRI NOV 3 2000

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERRIDE A COOL SHALLOW AIRMASS OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW
WILL INTERACT WITH WEAK ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED..

THIS OUTLOOK WILL RESUME SCHEDULED ISSUANCE ON MARCH 15 2001.
HOWEVER... THIS OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED AS NEEDED WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

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