Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
243 AM CST SUN OCT 29 2000

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE EFFECTS OF DRYING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE MODELS HAVE ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SE INTO THE GREAT BASIN/SW STATES NEXT 48 HOURS.
AVN BEGINS TO LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NM/CO ON
TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT BE PUSHED VERY FAR TO OUR SE...AND
EXPECT IT TO MAKE A RETURN BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE KSJT 88D RADAR INDICATES SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CONCHO VALLEY...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF A BROWNWOOD TO SJT LINE...MOVING ENE. NORTHERN EDGE APPEARS
TO COINCIDE WITH WEAK SURFACE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A LOW EARLY MORNING
POP FOR PARTS OF OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWFA...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
WEST AS CONCHO VALLEY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW TODAY...
EXPECT CLEARING TO MAKE A SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS INTO OUR SE
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOST PRONOUNCED DRYING WILL OCCUR
OVER THE BIG COUNTRY. FAVOR THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ACROSS
NW TWO-THIRDS OF OUR CWFA TODAY WHERE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...AND
MAY EVEN SET HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE MAV. TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTH AND BRINGS MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
EXPECT A LOW CLOUD RETURN THERE. EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
WILL LEAN TOWARD UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S FOR LOWS AS MODEL DEWPOINTS LOOK
A BIT HIGH CENTRAL AND NORTH.

ON MONDAY THE SSE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES OVER AND BRINGS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR CWFA. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS OR
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. DESPITE 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...PRESENCE OF MORE CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY AND CLOSEST TO MAV NUMBERS.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT MON NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SETUP. MAY EVEN SEE ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THINK THIS WILL MAINLY OCCUR NW OF OUR CWFA...SO DO
NOT PLAN TO ADD POP AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE LOWS LOOK TOO COOL MON
NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM WILL HAVE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
FAVOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST
CENTRAL TX. AVN MODEL MAY BE LIFTING THE SYSTEM OUT A BIT FAST AND TO
THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARD 30 POP TUESDAY BIG COUNTRY
AND CONCHO VALLEY WITH 20 POP FARTHER SOUTHEAST. MAY NEED TO CARRY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY IF SYSTEM IS
SLOWER MOVING. WILL AWAIT ARRIVAL OF MRF FOR THE EXTENDED.

ABI 077/049/077/066 000-
SJT 077/050/077/065 000-
JCT 074/054/077/;064 300-

.SJT...NONE.

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TXZ140-154-155-168>170-290540-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1208 AM CDT SUN OCT 29 2000

...THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND...

THE TORNADO WATCH WHICH WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

KIMBLE...MASON...MENARD...MCCULLOCH...SAN SABA...BROWN

AT 1205 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS.

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