Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
310 PM CDT MON OCT 23 2000

FFA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NW HILL COUNTRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWFA...MOVING NORTH AND REGENERATING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE AREA. FARTHERN NORTH AN AREA OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS OUR CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CARRY HIGH POPS TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH.

UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AZ IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH...
WITH THE SYSTEM OPENING INTO AN UPPER TOUGH AND LIFTING OUT NORTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXISTS OVER OUR CWFA...
AND MODELS FORECAST THIS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
DIFFICULTY WITH PLACEMENT AND RESOLUTION OF WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SW US CLOSED LOW INTO TX...BUT THESE IMPULSES
CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THIS AIRMASS. ETA MODEL BRINGS AN
IMPULSE NNE ACROSS OUR COUNTIES TUESDAY. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WILL LEAN TOWARD 30-50 POPS...WOULD LIKE TO SEE SUPPORT FROM
UPPER IMPULSE OR SURFACE BOUNDARY BEFORE GETTING CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TX AND INTERACT WITH THE
AIRMASS.

ABI 064/073/063/074 7543
SJT 063/073/063/074 8543
JCT 062/073/063/074 9543

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
       NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-232330-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
238 PM CDT MON OCT 23 2000

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...

...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY...

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP.  THE STORMS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WILL BE
TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM SWEETWATER TO MERTZON.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.

AS THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OZONA TO ELDORADO TO
MENARD...WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
RESIDENTS ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY SHOULD BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOOD WATERS THREATEN.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED..

FOR THE NORTH TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW.

ROUTINE ISSUANCE OF THE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL CEASE ON OCTOBER
15. THIS OUTLOOK WILL RESUME SCHEDULED ISSUANCE ON MARCH 15 2001.
HOWEVER... THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
THREATEN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

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