Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 AM CDT SUN APR 23 2000

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LATEST SFC ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS STEADILY ON THE RISE
AS GULF BEGINS TO OPEN UP. 88D RETURNS DEPICT DISSIPATING LINE OF
SHOWERS PINWHEELING ACROSS CENTRAL MO AHEAD OF 700MB WARM FRONT.
ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS SE KS/NE OK IN SIMILAR
FASHION...WITH MARKED DRYING BEHIND IT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS SHARP MOISTURE CONTRAST IS HANDLED EXCEPTIONALLY WELL BY THE
ETA...WHICH PROGRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SE INTO AR...ENHANCING
THE DEFORMATION ZONE PROGGED TO SETUP ACROSS SRN MO/AR TODAY.

WITH TEMPORARY DRY SLOTTING...WOULDNT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ACROSS SW ZONES. THIS WOULD LIKELY
AID IN ADDITIONAL COLD POOL CONVECTION FIRING JUST AHEAD OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW...AS EVIDENCED ACROSS S CNTRL KS AND NE OK ATTM. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE STORMS...DUE TO 500MB
COLD POOL AND MID LEVEL DRYING.

ELSEWHERE...CONTINUED WAA AND QG FRONTOGENTIC FORCING WILL LIKELY
SETUP SEVERAL WELL DEFINED RAINBANDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS DRAW CLOSER. STRONG UVVS ALONG DEFORMATION
ZONE SHOULD WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENY...AND WILL
SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF .25 TO .75 INCHES. GOING
TEMPS LOOK GOOD. DESPITE WARM START THIS AM...WILL ONLY SEE A SEVERAL
DEGREE RISE BEFORE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS BEST
DYNAMICS SHIFT S AND E. WITH LAGGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND E/NE
FLOW OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE DRIZZLE AND WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOP
INITIALLY. AS UPPER LEVEL FUJIWHARA DANCE CONTINUES UNDER BLOCKED
FLOW...KICKER S/W WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL MAKE
NECESSARY CHANGES TO ZONES TO REINTRODUCE POPS FOR THESE PERIODS
AS WELL. WILL GO BLO GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON MONDAY WITH ANTICIPATED
CLOUD COVER AND NRLY FLOW.

THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD FINALLY EJECT STUBBORN LOW OUT OF THE OZARKS
LATE MONDAY...AND WILL GO WITH CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

IN THE EXTENDED...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH GULF CLOSED OFF AND WEAK SFC
RIDGING...THINK PRECIP CHANCES ARE PRETTY SLIM...BUT WILL NOT AMEND
ZONES AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL US ON THURS...AND WILL SEE A NICE WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY CCF (FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY)

SGF TC 067/050 059/044 068 14+63-
JLN TC 069/050 062/045 070 14952-
UNO TR 068/050 061/047 069 14+75-
VIH TC 065/048 058/043 068 14+73-

.SGF...NONE.

BOOKBINDER

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 AM CDT SUN APR 23 2000

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND
MOVE SOUTH OF THE OZARKS LATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

BOOKBINDER