Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 PM CST SUN MAR 26 2000

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFIED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AROUND
NOON AS IT MET THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE OZARKS. LOW CLOUDS
HAD KEPT CAPES AND INSTABILITIES DOWN A BIT IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT
THAT WAS NOT A PROBLEM WHEN THE STORMS APPROACHED THE 72/60 SURFACE
CONDITIONS AT JOPLIN. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF 70 MPH WINDS AND GOLF BALL
HAIL.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT NEAR HUTCHINSON KANSAS...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT A GOOD CLIP. LAPS DATA SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY
OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. STORMS HAD
BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEBRASKA NEAR THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

12Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDNIGHT. MAY GO WITH AN UNQUALIFIED POP IN SOME LOCATIONS...
DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM UP TO ZONE ISSUANCE TIME.

SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THIS SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL COME INTO PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS MORE
ENERGY SPILLS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT EXTENDED HAS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND SEE NO REASON TO
DEVIATE FROM THAT AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS ACCEPTED WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT.

PRELIMINARY FORECAST GUI!DANCE(FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY)
SGF BB 042/059 037/065 084-0-
JLN BB 043/060 041/068 08300-
UNO BB 045/059 038/066 086-0-
VIH BB 040/057 035/062 086-0-

.SGF...NONE.

SUTTON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-261945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 PM CST SUN MAR 26 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:  BOURBON CRAWFORD CHEROKEE

IN MISSOURI:  VERNON  BARTON  JASPER  NEWTON  MCDONALD  BARRY
LAWRENCE  DADE  CEDAR  ST CLAIR  BENTON  HICKORY  POLK  GREENE
CHRISTIAN STONE  TANEY  DALLAS  WEBSTER  WRIGHT  DOUGLAS OZARK

A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO THE OZARKS
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE OZARKS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AS
TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS APPROACHED 60.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY AND EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF TORNADOES OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...OTHERWISE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND.

SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON...THE CENTRAL MISSOURI LAKES
TO SPRINGFIELD REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI BY MID EVENING.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY...SO SPOTT9ERS ARE URGED TO DEPLOY WELL
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SQUALL LINE.

.OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

SUTTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
152 PM CST SUN MAR 26 2000

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1215 PM    COLUMBUS                  KS   WIND DAMAGE
03/26/00   CHEROKEE                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

1215 PM    5 S JOPLIN                MO   .88 INCH HAIL
03/26/00   NEWTON                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

1235 PM    CARTHAGE                  MO   WIND DAMAGE
03/26/00   JASPER                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. 2
                                          SEPERATE REPORTS OF
                                          TREES DOWN IN CARTHAGE.

1255 PM    GOLDEN CITY               MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
03/26/00   BARTON

1255 PM    3 W GOLDEN CITY           MO   70 MPH TSTM GUST
03/26/00   BARTON

0115 PM    3 N LAWRENCEBURG          MO   .75 INCH HAIL
03/26/00   LAWRENCE                       REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

0115 PM    10 E KIMBERLING CITY      MO   .88 INCH HAIL
03/26/00   STONE

0130 PM    REEDS SPG                 MO   1 INCH HAIL
03/26/00   STONE                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0130 PM    GALENA                    MO   .88 INCH HAIL
03/26/00   STONE                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0140 PM    (SGF)SPRINGFIELD ARPT     MO   60 MPH TSTM GUST
03/26/00   GREENE                         WIND GUST TO 60 MPH AT
                                          NATIONAL WEATHER
                                          SERVICE OFFICE IN
                  A                        SPRINGFIELD.