Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
237 AM CDT MON AUG 7 2000

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN THE
PROBLEM OF THE DAY.

08Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NRN
MO AND ARCHING BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS NEXT SFC WAVE DEVELOPS.
TO THE SOUTH...SFC TROF REMAINS EVIDENT IN THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN CWA SOUTHWEST ACROSS SERN KS. HAVE SEEN A FEW
PULSE STORMS DEVELOP INVOF SGF OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. WITH 30 KT
LLJ INCREASING ALONG THE TROF AXIS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
FURTHER ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTION THIS MORNING. GIVEN 850MB MOISTURE
POOLING...MUCAPES OF 1500 - 2000 J/KG...AND SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EVIDENT ON SGF 88D...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED PULSE
STORMS.

BY THIS AFTN...WILL SEE MDT INSTABILITY WITH FCST SBCAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG...WITH LI'S OF -8 TO -10. WHILE BEST CHC OF ORGANIZED
STORMS WILL BE ALONG SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS IA/IL...WEAK SFC TROF
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL MO...LINKED TO UPR TROF
OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES...COULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN INITIATING
CONVECTION. WITH UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT OF SFC BOUNDARY...WILL
MENTION A SMALL CHC POP IN ALL ZONES FOR TODAY.

OTHER MAJOR CONCERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE HEAT INDICES. TREND OVER
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN FOR SFC DWPTS TO INCREASE DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AS VERY MOIST AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN. GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES TODAY...WOULD EXPECT MID 90S TO BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE AREA. COUPLED WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 70S...WILL GO
WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY.

WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AS ZONAL FLOW AND UPR JET REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN
CONUS...WITH A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN US. MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO WEAK SFC FRONT ACROSS KS/NRN MO/IA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH NEVER QUITE REACHES THE OZARKS. WITH NO
REAL KICKER IN SIGHT...AND DEEP SW FLOW OVER THE AREA...SHOULD SEE
PERSISTENT FORECAST WORK OUT WELL. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF MAINLY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS LLJ DEVELOPS EACH NIGHT
AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE AXIS. WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY WITH LACK OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY FORECAST NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...
SGF UU 94/75 93/73 93 143221
JLN UU 96/77 95/75 95 143221
UNO UU 94/75 94/72 94 143221
VIH UU 96/73 93/72 93 143221

.SGF...HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM BRANSON TO SALEM.

BOOKBINDER/HUDlSON