Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
320 PM EDT MON APR 17 2000

...SORRY FOR THE DELAY...BUSY WEATHER AND EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS...

UPR LVL LOW STILL DIGGING TOWARD SOUTHEAST THANKS TO 90KT JET AT 300
ON BACK SIDE...AS WELL AS 60KT AT 500. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS S/WV
GETTING READY TO ROUND BOTTOM SIDE OF UPR LOW. SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK
SO FAR PER MDL FCSTS. ALL MDLS ARE OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. AVN A
LTL DEEPER BUT ALL END UP WITH SFC LOW NEAR SOUTHEAST NC COAST AT 36
HRS. SLOW MVMNT AND ANOTHER S/WV IN NW FLOW WILL SHOULD KEEP SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND FOR ERN HALF OF CWA THRU TUES. HIER MOS POPS
REFLECT SLOWER MOVEMENT. WILL GO WITH DETAILS OF ETA SINCE IT HAS
BETTER DEPICTION SO FAR OF SFC LOW REDEVELOPMENT OVER SRN
APPALACHIANS AND ALSO CONTAINS SOME SUBTLE EVIDENCE OF THE FORCING
RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY'S EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THE MIDDLE OF
THE THREE WAVES SEEN ON RADAR/SATELLITE. THE LAST ONE ALONG COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN
CONVECTIVE RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...WILL CONTINUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO CANCEL
FAR WEST BEFORE THEN. CONVECTION ASSOC WITH FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO SRN WV BUT WILL CONTINUE STRONG FARTHER
SOUTH AS BEST FORCING AND UPR DIFL HEADS THAT DIRECTION. INSTABILITY
OVER PIEDMONTS OF SOUTHSIDE VA AND N-CNTRL NC SHOULD BE ENUF TO
ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS INTO EARLY
EVENING...AND CURRENT SVR WATCH LOOKS GOOD.

POPS WILL ALL BE NEAR 100 TONIGHT...AND WILL UP 2ND PERIOD POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FCST TO REFLECT HIER MOS NUMBERS AND SLOWER MOVEMENT TO
SYSTEM. WRAP-AROUND WILL WARRANT AT LEAST CHC POPS THUR TUES ALONG
AND EAST OF BLUE RIDGE. BY WED ONLY LOW LVL MOISTURE LEFT AND
DOWNSLOPE SHOULD BREAKS UP CLOUDS EAST OF BLUE RIDGE.

.RNK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT
NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-W
VZ 042>045-180200-

KEIGHTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1042 AM EDT MON APR 17 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....  ;

1000 PM    CITY OF BEDFORD           VA   FLOODING
04/16/00   BEDFORD                        STREET AND CREEK FLOODING

TW

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NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-181200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1200 PM EDT MON APR 17 2000

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY AND
SOUTH OF A ROANOKE TO BUCKINGHAM LINE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...WITH LARGE HAIL THE GREATEST THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY AND
NORTH OF A ROANOKE TO BUCKINGHAM LINE.

IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS OF VIRGINIA THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS... AND
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND BE PREPARED
TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

MTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1247 PM EDT MON APR 17 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....  q

1227 PM    3 MI SOUTH OF WYTHEVILLE  VA   1 INCH HAIL
04/17/00   WYTHE                          REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

TW

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