Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
150 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

MCS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF EAST THRU WV ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PICKED
UP BY THE ETA...BUT THE MODEL IS SLOWER IN TIMING. ADJUSTING FOR
THIS...THE MCS SHOULD BE INTO NRN VA BY ZONE ISSUANCE. CONCERN
GREATEST FOR NRN FA...BATH/GREENBRIER/ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES. VIS SAT
LOOP IS SHOWING A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO ERN KY...EXTENDING NE INTO
CENTRAL WV. FEEL THAT BEST WIND ENERGY WILL STAY NORTH OF FA LATE
THIS AFTN PER ETA....BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR MORE CONVECTION
TO FORM IN SE KY/SRN WV/SW VA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND MOVE EAST
INTO OUR SW FA LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...GIVEN GREATEST
INSTABLILTY...HIGH THETA-E...BUT MODELS PROGGING A LACK OF SFC MOIST
CONV. WILL WAIT AND LOOK AT RADAR/SAT TRENDS. SC/CU LINE FORMING
JUST LEE OF BLUE RDG IN NC AND NOT MUCH TOWERING CU DVLPMNT...SO
WAITING ON BOUNDARIES

JUST GOT A COORD CALL FROM SPC WHICH WILL BE ISSUING A SVR WATCH TIL
21Z FOR NRN/NW FA.

5H TROF DIGS INTO FA THRU THU-FRI PUSHING CD FNT TO NRN FA THU AFTN.
FNT GETS HUNG UP ALG BLUE RDGE THU NIGHT-FRI...THEN GETS A KICK FROM
MAIN VORT ROTATING AROUND CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAIN FOCUS
FOR PCPN TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND MTNS. THURSDAY...850
THETA-E FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH TO NC/VA BRDR SO HIGHEST POPS WLL BE IN
SW VA/NW NC...THEN EAST ALG VA/NC BORDER WITH LESS CHANCE IN THE
NORTH. MAY SEE A LAG IN PCPN THU NIGHT BEFORE 2NDY VORT AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FRIDAY...SO WILL GO WITH CHC FRIDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS WHERE UPSLOPE STRENGHTHENS.

SAT-SUN...DRY AND LESS HUMID...THEN WARMING MONDAY AS 5H RIDGE v
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER FWC NUMBERS.

THANKS FOR COORD LWX. OTHER CALLS WELCOME.

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

WHP

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-092300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
1155 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

...THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 IN THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MOVE INTO AS WELL AS DEVELOP ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. IN
ADDITION...ANY OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A QUICK
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD. THIS MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS IN
FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THAT SAW HEAVIER
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE HOT AND VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 90S
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
HEAT TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105.

IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE
TO THE SUN OR STRENUOUS PHYSICAL ACTIVITY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS TO
AVOID DEHYDRATION. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT...LIGHT-COLORED ...LOOSE-FITTING
CLOTHING. WEAR A HAT TO SHIELD YOURSELF FROM THE SUN. REMEMBER TO
PROVIDE SHADE AND PLENTY OF DRINKING WATER FOR YOUR PETS.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED8 THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
LATER UPDATES.

NOGUEIRA

VAZ019-020-WVZ042>045-091846-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS HEADED TOWARD SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
LEWISBURG WEST VIRGINIA BY 3:00 PM...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AND THE HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA...BETWEEN
3:00 AND 4:00 PM.

AT 1:30 PM...NUMEROUS TREES WERE DOWNED IN CHARLESTON WEST
VIRGINIA AREA...AND IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAIN THEIR
INTENSITY...HIGH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA...AND TAHE HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS FOR YOUR AREA.

PM

VAZ018>020-023-024-035-WVZ043>045-092000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
307 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND
MOVING INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THESE STORMS WILL REACH COVINGTON...
CLIFTON FORGE AND WARM SPRINGS BY 325 PM...THEN MOVE INTO
ROCKBRIDGE AND BOTETOURT COUNTIES BETWEEN 330 PM AND 400 PM.
ANOTHER ISOLATED STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH SUMMERS COUNTY IN WEST
VIRGINIA BETWEEN 330 PM AND 400 PM. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...AND THEY MAY STILL STRENGTHEN ENOkUGH TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS GREATER THAN 50 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE
STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
329 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 PM    ALDERSON                  WV   WIND DAMAGE
08/09/00   GREENBRIER                     LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

0245 PM    WILLIAMSBURG              WV   WIND DAMAGE
08/09/00   GREENBRIER                     LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

VAZ023-024-034-035-045>047-092100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY
AND MOVING INTO THE BLUE RIDGE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE BOTETOURT AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH BEDFORD AND AMHERST COUNTIES BETWEEN 400 PM AND 430 PM. THEY
WILL REACH THE LYNCHBURG AREA AROUND 415 PM. THEY WILL THEN PASS
THROUGH CAMPBELL...APPOMATTOX AND BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES BETWEEN 430 PM
AND 530 PM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 OR 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS...AND THEY MAY STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS GREATER THAN 50 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE
STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JJ