Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2000

...CORRECTION AT THE BOTTOM FOR THE WATCH AREA...

WILL SEND OUT THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE EARLY TO ACCOMMODATE THE WATCH
AREA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
UNDERCUTTING THE MOISTURE SEEN. THIS SUBSIDENCE AREA IS PROVIDING
STRONG LIFT TO UNSTABLE AIR FROM HICKORY NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA.
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THIS LINE AT THE SURFACE.

AREA TO WATCH IS A WEAK VORTEX HAS FORMED ALONG THE FAST
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION JUST TO THE WEST OF
CHARLOTTE ON THE STATE LINE. THIS WEAK VORTEX IS FAST MOVING AND
WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WATCH BOX AREA. EXPECT THE
HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIKELY IN A LINE AS IT
TRAVELS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. WIND AND SMALL HAIL LIKELY TO BE THE
PROBLEM WITH THE LOW WET BULB ZEROS REPORTED (11K FT).

WILL ADD A EVENING PERIOD TO ALL ZONES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CATEGORICAL.

TONIGHT SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER WILL BE BEHIND THE LINE OF
CONVECTION AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BECOMES STRONGER...CUTOFF
AND NEARS THE COAST. THUS WILL KEEP A LIKELY POP IN FOR TONIGHT AND
MENTION THAT THIS THREAT WILL END PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK FOR THE CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE COAST TO BE
SLOW MOVING AND PUMP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO CENTRAL NC WITH BELOW
GUIDANCE NUMBER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR AREAS
BELIEVED TO BE CLOSEST TO THE CUTOFF LOW. TUESDAY EXPECT SPRINKLES
IN THE WEST AND SHOWERS IN THE EAST BUT ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT CLEARING OFF GRADUALLY.

RSO IN EFFECT THROUGH 830 PM FOR NC.

.RAH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #714 UNTIL 7 PM FOR SOUTHERN
       PIEDMONT AND SOUTHEAST COAST.

CLINE

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1230 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2000

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-272310-
ALAMANCE-ANSON-CHATHAM-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DURHAM-EDGECOMBE-
FORSYTH-FRANKLIN-GRANVILLE-GUILFORD-HALIFAX-HARNETT-HOKE-JOHNSTON-
LEE-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-NASH-ORANGE-PERSON-RANDOLPH-RICHMOND-SAMPSON-
SCOTLAND-STANLY-VANCE-WAKE-WARREN-WAYNE-WILSON-
INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE...DURHAM...WINSTON-SALEM...
GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...ROCKY MOUNT...CHAPEL HILL...RALEIGH...
GOLDSBORO

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...

.SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE
AREAS AS WELL AS THE FAYETTEVILLE VICINITY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT THREATENING WEATHER OF ANY KIND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. SPOTTERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED IN TRIANGLE AND
FAYETTEVILLE AREAS.

.SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH THE
UNSTABLE AIR ALREADY OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY.

.HAZARDOUS WEATHER DETAILS...
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE OTHER
THREAT MAY BE FROM SMALL HAIL. THE TIMING OF THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

JWC