Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2000

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWEST FROM
THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. JUST
ONE LOOK AT THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP VIRTUALLY PAINTS THE
PICTURE FOR TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES PLASTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. ONE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND ACROSS I-70
IN MISSOURI IS APPROACHING NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI IS
ALREADY AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NGM/ETA/AVN FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT AS THE ETA SWINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 6 HOURS
SOONER THAN NGM/AVN. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...ETA ALSO ENDS PRECIP
SOONER WITH DECREASED INSTABILITY VALUES. THIS DOES NOT LOOK
REASONABLE...SO WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW NGM/AVN MODEL SOLUTIONS PAST
24 HOURS.

SO EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO BE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z SUNDAY
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND EXIST TO OUR EAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...AN H5 LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY.

BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
POSE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ETA/NGM LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH K INDICES ABOVE 30 DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME. WITH ANTECEDENT RAINS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN COMBINATION WITH TODAY/S HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL ISSUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WILL LET DAY
SHIFT EXTEND WATCH INTO TONIGHT/S PERIOD IF NECESSARY.

CURRENT ZONES ARE GOING MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR TODAY/S HIGH
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
TODAY AND THE LOWERED FWC/FAN MOS VALUES...WILL CUT HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PREFER A BLEND OF
FWC/FAN MOS VALUES FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST.

.PAH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA TODAY.

PRESLEY

MOZ108>110-112-114-271730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1134 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST NEAR THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE...

AT 1130 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG STORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60. LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS WILL REACH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 1230 PM CDT. ANTICIPATE BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP
50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FLOODING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. ESPECIALLY BE ON THE LOOKOUT IN NEW MADRID COUNTY FOR FLASH
FLOODING. SOME TOWNS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE...GIDEON...HARTZELL...
FRAILIE AND PORTAGEVILLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TPAH