Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2000

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWEST FROM
THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. JUST
ONE LOOK AT THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP VIRTUALLY PAINTS THE
PICTURE FOR TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES PLASTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. ONE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND ACROSS I-70
IN MISSOURI IS APPROACHING NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI IS
ALREADY AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NGM/ETA/AVN FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT AS THE ETA SWINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 6 HOURS
SOONER THAN NGM/AVN. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...ETA ALSO ENDS PRECIP
SOONER WITH DECREASED INSTABILITY VALUES. THIS DOES NOT LOOK
REASONABLE...SO WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW NGM/AVN MODEL SOLUTIONS PAST
24 HOURS.

SO EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO BE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z SUNDAY
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND EXIST TO OUR EAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...AN H5 LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY.

BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
POSE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ETA/NGM LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH K INDICES ABOVE 30 DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME. WITH ANTECEDENT RAINS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN COMBINATION WITH TODAY/S HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL ISSUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WILL LET DAY
SHIFT EXTEND WATCH INTO TONIGHT/S PERIOD IF NECESSARY.

CURRENT ZONES ARE GOING MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR TODAY/S HIGH
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
TODAY AND THE LOWERED FWC/FAN MOS VALUES...WILL CUT HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PREFER A BLEND OF
FWC/FAN MOS VALUES FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST.

.PAH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA TODAY.

PRESLEY

MOZ107-108-270400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1011 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM...

...THE WATCH INCLUDES A SMALL PART OF THE OZARK FOOTHILLS IN
   SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INCLUDED ARE:

CARTER...AND RIPLEY

INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AT 1005
PM THIS LATE EVENING. THESE COULD DEVELOP NORTHWARD OR MOVE MORE
NORTHEAST WITH TIME INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT. IF THE STORMS
BECOME SEVERE IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION.

ILZ075>078-080>083-INZ081-082-085>087-270600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1212 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM...

...THE WATCH INCLUDES NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
   MOST OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE:

IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS - PERRY...JEFFERSON...FRANKLIN...WAYNE...
HAMILTON...WHITE...EDWARDS AND WABASH.

IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA - GIBSON...PIKE...POSEY...VANDERBURGH...AND
WARRICK.

AT 1205 AM...RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS GIBSON
AND PIKE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE AREA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF STRONG DAMAGING WIND...
AND POSSIBLY HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

ILZ075>078-080>082-270930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
303 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2000

...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION...

AT 300 AM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
LAWRENCEVILLE TO SALEM TO NASHVILLE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THE
LINE SHOULD BE FROM NEAR FAIRFIELD TO DU QUOIN BY 400 AM.  EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH THESE STORMS.

SDB