Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CST MON JAN 3 2000

BUSY WEATHER SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24
HOURS...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE
CHANGEOVER TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT.  LATEST 08Z SFC
CHART SHOWING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SWIN/SIL/SEMO
TO A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE TX/OK BORDER...WITH ANOTHER LOW NR
THE OK PANHANDLE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FIRST UPPER IMPULSE
EXITING NE PART OF FA WITH NEXT POWERFUL DISTURBANCE HEADING NE
THROUGH OK.

SUNDAY/S 00Z ETA MODEL VERIFIED IN TARGETING ZONE OF HIGHEST QPF IN
NARROW SWATH OVER OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  COMPARING MONDAY/S 00Z
MODELS...NGM HAS COME IN LINE WITH ETA...WITH AVN SLIGHTLY FASTER
MODEL.  GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN NGM AND ETA ON PLACEMENT OF SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND QPF...WILL USE A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS IN
UPCOMING ZONE PACKAGE.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER NRN TX BECOMES
A STRETCHED LOBE OF VORTICITY BY THE TIME IT LANDS OVER THE WRN PART
OF FA BY 12Z TUE.  AT THE SFC...BOTH NGM AND ETA THRUST DEEPENING
1000MB SFC LOW INTO SW MO BY 18Z MON...TO NEAR STL BY 00Z TUE...THEN
TO ERN MN BY 12Z TUE.  SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.  BELIEVE SWATH OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL TEND TO SHIFT TO
NORTH OF FA TODAY AS APPROACHING SFC LOW SWINGS STATIONARY FRONT TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.  IN THE WARM SECTOR...SQUALL LINE
CURRENTLY OVER OK WILL RACE EAST...AND BELIEVE BEST DYNAMICS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WILL BE JUST TO SOUTH OF FA.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE FORECAST COMBINATION OF -4 LI/S...30 K INDEX...TT NR 50...AND
350-400 SWEAT INDEX BY 00Z MON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTN AND EVE AS H5 100 KT JET NOSES INTO FA.

BY 06Z TONIGHT...DRY SLOT ENCROACHES UPON AREA FROM SW...EFFECTIVELY
ENDING PRECIP FROM THE WEST.  THERE COULD EVEN BE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER WRN PARTS OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT.  THEN AS WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE INVADES THE AREA ON TUESDAY...COULD EVEN SEE A FEW FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON TUE AM...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PARTS OF SIL
AND SWIN.

AS FAR AS MOS GUIDANCE IS CONCERNED...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD NGM FWC
NO/S...AS FAN GUIDANCE FOR TODAY APPEARS WAY TOO COOL.  OTHERWISE...
WILL MODEL UPCOMING ZONE PACKAGE CLOSELY AFTER ONGOING ZONES.

.PAH...NONE

PRESLEY

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-032300-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
620 AM CST MON JAN 3 2000

STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS SHORTLY AFTER 600 AM. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING RAPIDLY
EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MEANWHILE...A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WAS BETWEEN WEST PLAINS AND POPLAR BLUFF...AND
EXTENDED EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS TO NEAR
EVANSVILLE INDIANA. THE AIRMASS IS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE OVER FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI FROM THE PLAINS
STATES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...AND INSTABILITY
MARGINAL AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM
3/4 TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
FLOODING PROBLEMS AGAIN IN THOSE AREAS THAT WERE INUNDATED WITH RAIN
OVERNIGHT. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST / NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
POPLAR BLUFF TO PADUCAH.