Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST WED MAR 15 2000

UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SINCE STRATUS HAS ERODED QUICKLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGEST ALONG AN ELK CITY TO ENID LINE THIS MORNING SO
ADJUSTED CLOUD WORDING THERE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY BY MIDDAY. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST
ACROSS THE WEST TO UPPED TO 15-25 THERE BUT WILL NOT ISSUE LAKE
CAUTIONS.  LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT MAY BE JUST A TAD SLOWER GETTING
INTO THE AREA SO REMOVED MENTION OF AFTERNOON WINDSHIFT AND LOW POPS
IN CENTRAL ZONES.

33/DLF

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-152100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST WED MAR 15 2000

...WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

A STRONG LATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AT MIDDAY. THE STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... BRINGING A DRAMATIC RETURN TO
MORE WINTER LIKE WEATHER. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW...ALONG WITH
COLD RAIN AND SLEET...WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS FAR EAST AS
PONCA CITY...OKLAHOMA CITY...AND WICHITA FALLS.

THE CHANGES WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS
A POWERFUL COLD FRONT ENTERS HARPER AND ELLIS COUNTIES. THE FRONT
WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT... WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH. BY MIDNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR OKLAHOMA
CITY... LAWTON...AND ALTUS...AND BY SUNRISE WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...SOME 30 TO 40 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY.

PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.  LIVESTOCK OWNERS
AND THOSE WITH PETS OUTDOORS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO PROTECT ANIMALS
FROM THE COLD WET WEATHER.

17/24



OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101530-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST WED MAR 15 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A SMALL PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER TO LAWTON TO CROWELL TEXAS. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BY 6 PM THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH A MEDFORD TO GAGE LINE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING STILLWATER TO HOBART LINE BY
MIDNIGHT AND PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BY MORNING.  AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT... SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

BY LATE AFTERNOON... THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL CREATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
IT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA AND ENCOUNTERS THIS AIRMASS.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LARGE HAIL FROM STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD
STAY ALERT TO AFTERNOON WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS AND BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

33/DLF