Severe Thunderstorm Warning 397, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2000

NEXT MCS IN THE SERIES CONTS TO MOVE SE ALONG THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.
TODAYS FORECAST WILL BE WEIGHTED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH TO CHANGE.
COULD SEE A SIMILAR SETUP TONIGHT...BUT TRAJECTORIES LOOK TO KEEP
THE NEXT ONE EVEN FARTHER WEST. UPPER RIDGE CONT TO BUILD NORTH
ACROSS ROCKIES WITH A MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED FLOW. ALTHOUGH
CHANCES GET LOWER AS WE GO THROUGH EXTENDED TIME FRAME WILL KEEP
POPS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY EVERYWHERE AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
TIME MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WANT TO BEGIN TO SHIFT THE RIDGE BACK EAST
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD MEAN RETURN TO HOT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS BY WEEKS END AND WILL TREND THAT WAY. HOPE TO SEE
NEWEST MRF BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES
ANTICIPATED TO EXTENDED.

FCSTID = 30
PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS...
OKC   85  66  86  68 /  60  40  40  20
HBR   90  67  90  68 /  40  40  30  30
SPS   94  69  93  70 /  40  40  30  20
GAG   85  64  87  66 /  40  40  30  30
PNC   85  67  87  68 /  50  40  30  30
DUA   87  67  89  69 /  70  40  40  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
235 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2000

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 AM    20 NNE MOORELAND          OK   87 MPH WIND GUST
07/22/00   WOODWARD                       MEASURED BY FREEDOM MESONET
                                          SITE WHICH IS IN WOODWARD
                                          CO.

TL

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221400-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
600 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUANAH TO VERNON...TO ARDMORE...TO ATOKA. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS PART OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OF STORMS. THE STRONGEST STORMS LIE ACROSS AN AREA FROM HUGHES TO
NORTHERN LOVE COUNTY. THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
AND EAST.

THE STORMS HAVE NOT MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...HOWEVER THE
OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS MAY YET PRODUCE A FEW STORMS THIS
MORNING.

OVERNIGHT...A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY REFORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE MAIN SEVERE
STORM RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND
ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WILL NOT BE SEVERE.

PURPURA