Severe Thunderstorm Warning 382, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2000

NEXT MCS IN THE SERIES CONTS TO MOVE SE ALONG THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.
TODAYS FORECAST WILL BE WEIGHTED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH TO CHANGE.
COULD SEE A SIMILAR SETUP TONIGHT...BUT TRAJECTORIES LOOK TO KEEP
THE NEXT ONE EVEN FARTHER WEST. UPPER RIDGE CONT TO BUILD NORTH
ACROSS ROCKIES WITH A MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED FLOW. ALTHOUGH
CHANCES GET LOWER AS WE GO THROUGH EXTENDED TIME FRAME WILL KEEP
POPS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY EVERYWHERE AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
TIME MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WANT TO BEGIN TO SHIFT THE RIDGE BACK EAST
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD MEAN RETURN TO HOT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS BY WEEKS END AND WILL TREND THAT WAY. HOPE TO SEE
NEWEST MRF BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES
ANTICIPATED TO EXTENDED.

FCSTID = 30
PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS...
OKC   85  66  86  68 /  60  40  40  20
HBR   90  67  90  68 /  40  40  30  30
SPS   94  69  93  70 /  40  40  30  20
GAG   85  64  87  66 /  40  40  30  30
PNC   85  67  87  68 /  50  40  30  30
DUA   87  67  89  69 /  70  40  40  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-220630-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM MEDFORD...TO CHANDLER...TO CHICKASHA...TO ERICK. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EVERYWHERE ELSE NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
AT 1130 PM ACROSS KANSAS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM...AND SHOULD
APPROACH INTERSTATE 40 BY BETWEEN 3 AM AND 4 AM.  DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS FROM 60 TO 90 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS CLUSTER
OF STORMS.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREAS MOST AT RISK FOR
SEEING THE WORST OF THE STORMS WILL BE ALONG A 60 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR
CENTERED ROUGHLY FROM BUFFALO...TO WOODWARD...TO WATONGA AND
WEATHERFORD...TO CHICKASHA AND ANADARKO.

EMERGENCY MANAGER AND STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

 MILLER

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
235 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2000

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 AM    20 NNE MOORELAND          OK   87 MPH WIND GUST
07/22/00   WOODWARD                       MEASURED BY FREEDOM MESONET
                                          SITE WHICH IS IN WOODWARD
                                          CO.

TL