Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2000

AN EXTREMELY COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN LIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING..AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE FEATURES
THRU THE AFTERNOON IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.  AS SHUD BE EXPECTED..THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NO CLUE ABOUT THE EXISTENCE OF NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
AND OTHER SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES..AND THUS CAN PROVIDE LITTLE CLUE
AS TO THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE SFC FEATURES THRU THE AFTERNOON
WHICH..OF COURSE..WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE INITIATION OF MORE
CONVECTION BY 00Z.

CURRENT SAT/RADAR/SFC MESO ANALYSIS IS DEPICTING WHAT APPEARS TO BE
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT ENTERING NRN OK..AND THEN ARCING SWD ALONG
THE TX/OK BORDER TO SOUTH OF KLBB.  THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
MORNING MCS HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER..BUT WAS SLOWING
IT SWD MOVEMENT. A SFC LOW WAS SE OF KCDS ALONG THE WRN EXTENT OF
THIS OUTFLOW..WITH ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NWWD FROM
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF DFW. FINALLY..YET ANOTHER BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KSPS
SSWWD IS EVIDENT ON VIS SAT AND RADAR.  INSOLATION AND MIXING WILL
PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE AS TO THE POSITION OF SAID BOUNDARIES BY
INITIATION TIME..AND IT MAY BE UNTIL 19-21Z BEFORE ANYTHING BECOMES
MORE CLEAR.  ATTM..WILL BRING THE FRONT TO NEAR I-44 BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY.  SUSPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SVR WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER...POSSIBLY IN THE ERN PARTS OF OUR TEXAS ZONES.
PERIODIC UPDATES CAN BE EXPECTED THRU MID AFTERNOON TO DEAL WITH
TEMPORAL WORDING AND ESPECIALLY WINDS.  TEMPS LOOK CLOSE..AND WILL
ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES THERE. UPDATE OUT BY 1130 LOCAL.
 MILLER

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2000

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1242 AM    ALVA                      OK   67 MPH WIND GUST
05/27/00   WOODS                          MESONET MEASURED

FM

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271930-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KNOX CITY... TO ALTUS...TO OKLAHOMA CITY...TO CHANDLER.

DISCUSSION...A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION EXISTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT WAS
ENTERING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES APPARENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WAS ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WERE
RELATIVELY WEAK.

AT 1215 PM CDT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS...FROM ARCHER CITY...TO
NORTH OF WICHITA FALLS NEAR THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STORMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL PERSIST AND CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION
DUE TO SOMEWHAT WEAK WIND FIELDS...THE HIGH INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY FROM ARCHER CITY TO
LAWTON...EASTWARD TO ARDMORE AND ATOKA.  VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
VICINITY OF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS IN THE ARCHER CITY...WICHITA
FALLS...WAURIKA AREAS.

IN ADDITION...MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT COMPLETELY SCOURED OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
ELEVATED SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP AT MIDDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KANSAS...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND NEAR THE RED RIVER SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE LATEST
WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL THIS EVENING.

 MILLER

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
138 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2000

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0128 PM    1 S ARCHER CITY           TX   TORNADO
05/27/00   ARCHER                         AMATEUR RADIO REPORT

0120 PM    ARCHER CITY               TX   .88 INCH HAIL
05/27/00   ARCHER                         AMATEUR RADIO REPORT

FM

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
221 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2000

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM    5 S WINDTHORST            TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/27/00   ARCHER                         AMATEUR RADIO REPORT

0215 PM    3 S WINDTHORST            TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/27/00   ARCHER                         AMATEUR RADIO REPORT

FM

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2000

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0210 PM    5 S WINDTHORST            TX   2.75 INCH HAIL
05/27/00   ARCHER                         AMATEUR RADIO REPORT

0200 PM    9 W JOY                   TX   .75 INCH HAIL
05/27/00   CLAY                           PUBLIC REPORT

FM