Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2000

APPEARS AS THOUGH MOTHER NATURE IS RIGHT ON SCHEDULE ONCE AGAIN AS
WE SLIDE INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN WILL
PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AT LEAST INTO SAT.  THIS WILL BE A
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST THRU AT LEAST 48 HOURS B/C OF EFFECTS OF
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/CLOUD COVER ON LATER EVENTS.

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANAL SHOWS A LOW INVOF KMAF WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE SRN SECTIONS OF OK.  THIS BOUNDARY
WAS MOVING SWD AS A COLD FRONT ALL MORNING..BUT PER LATEST KFDR
RADAR LOOP IT HAS STALLED AND IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT SLOWLY NWD TO
THE WEST OF KSPS.  MEANWHILE..ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRATUS FIELD IN OK DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING..AND YET ANOTHER SFC BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ON
KFDR IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ONES.  WITH EXCESSIVE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INVOF THIS AREA..THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS THIS EVENING CANNOT BE IGNORED.

HOWEVER..FOR TONITE..WE BELIEVE THE MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY IS THE
850 WARM FRONT..WHICH IS NEAR I-40. AS LLJ INTENSIFIES TONITE AND
INCREASES WAA/CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AREA..WIDEPSREAD CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE TX PANHANDLE AND/OR WRN OK BETWEEN 00-06Z.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY..THE MAIN SHOW
SHUD BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  ATTM..EXPECT FOCUS TO BE ROUGHLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ERICK TO STILLWATER. DUE MOSTLY TO VERY DRY ANTECENDENT
CONDITIONS..WE HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
BUT WE WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE MENTIONING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES.

ON FRIDAY..SOME SORT OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHUD BE LURKING
AROUND THE AREA..AND A BETTER DEFINED DRYLINE SHUD BE IN PLACE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF THE UPPER LOW SHEARS EWD DURING
THE EVENING.  THE CAP STRENGTH WILL BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE DAY..BUT LOW POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED THRU FRIDAY
NITE WITH THIS FEATURE. SUSPECT THAT FAR SWRN ZONES WILL BAKE IN
EXCESSIVE HEAT FRI AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN BEHIND DRYLINE WITH DEEP
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. POPS WILL BE CARRIED INTO SAT PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS FRONT SAGS SWD.

AM A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE WITH A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR SUN/MON
ATTM B/C BOUNDARY WILL NOT PUSH TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THUS
HIGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY.  HOWEVER..ALSO DO NOT HAVE A
COMPELLING REASON TO ADD POPS ATTM..SO WILL RIDE WITH THE GOING
FOREACST FOR THIS PACKAGE.  WILL INTRODUCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY AXIS PUSH NWD AND BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE FASTER FLOW ALOFT.
 MILLER

PRELIM NUMBERS..SUBJECT TO CHANGE..
OKC   70  90  67  86 /  40  30  30  30
HBR   69  98  68  90 /  30  20  20  20
SPS   72  99  70  91 /  20  30  20  20
GAG   61  95  59  83 /  70  30  30  20
PNC   66  89  67  83 /  70  50  30  20
DUA   73  91  73  90 /  20  20  20  40

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
709 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2000

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0745 PM    3.5 ENE MOUNTAIN VIEW     OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/24/00   KIOWA/WASHITA                  HAM RADIO REPORT

0745 PM    3.5 ENE MOUNTAIN VIEW     OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
05/24/00   KIOWA/WASHITA                  HAM RADIO REPORT

0950 PM    KINGFISHER                OK   2.50 INCH HAIL
05/24/00   KINGFISHER                     HAM RADIO REPORT

0945 PM    GRACEMONT                 OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/24/00   CADDO                          HAM RADIO REPORT

1030 PM    CUSHING                   OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/24/00   PAYNE                          HAM RADIO REPORT

1000 PM    5 N CUSHING               OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/24/00   PAYNE                          HAM RADIO REPORT

1000 PM    3 SW WATONGA              OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/24/00   BLAINE                         HAM RADIO REPORT

1030 PM    9 E HENNESSEY             OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/24/00   KINGFISHER                     HAM RADIO REPORT

KT