Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
420 AM CDT WED OCT 25 2000

UPPER LOW OVER SW IS ON THE MOVE AND WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TDY/TNT. FIRST SHOT OCCURRING NOW APPEARS
RELATED TO RRQ OF UPPER JET WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY E-NE
TODAY AND LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THINKING THAT A
BROKEN AREA OF PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE EAST OVER W-C OK
BRINGING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS BUT NO LARGE SCALE MCS OR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MAY NEED A FEW MORE
LOCAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON WHETHER LOCAL
AREAS ALREADY HIT HARD RECEIVE A SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN. LOWEST POPS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SE CWA.

WV/IR SAT SHOWS WRAPPED UP VORT CENTER MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN NM.
THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO SWING EAST LATE TODAY AND FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT WHICH WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP...MAINLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND MAINLY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS. SOME
CONCERN THAT SINCE THIS FEATURE TUCKS IN SO CLOSE BEHIND EXITING JET
BY THIS EVENING THAT IT MAY NOT PRODUCE ALL THAT WELL AND THE FIRST
MAIN SHOT OF PRECIP MIGHT BE IT WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIP TONIGHT. AGREE WITH SWODY1 THAT IF AIRMASS CAN RECOVER SOME
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR THIS EVENING OVER NW OK BUT WILL NOT
MENTION IN ZONES AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A DOWN DAY FOR PRECIP WITH
FIRST MAIN LOW ALOFT MOVING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...HOWEVER THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A GENERAL SW FLOW ALOFT AND MODELS INDICATE WEAK
IMPULSES SPITTING OUT AHEAD OF NEXT DIGGING TROUGH.  WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN FOR THU-THU NIGHT AS A RESULT...BUT WILL EASE BACK A BIT
FROM PREV PKG FOR THU. BY FRIDAY...MOST MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT
NEXT TROUGH WILL DIG SE THEN SWING OUT AS A NEG TILT TROUGH FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH
AVN/ETA/MESOETA ALL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN BROAD DIVERGENT
FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH.

SATURDAY COULD BE INTERESTING ACROSS W-C OKLAHOMA FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL IF S/W TROUGH SWINGS NEGATIVE TILT AS PROGGED. SURFACE
MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE A STRONG COMEBACK BENEATH THIS FEATURE AND WITH
STRONG COOLING ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED.
SUNDAY FINALLY LOOKS TO BE A MORE SETTLED DAY...BUT MRF HINTS THAT
ANY RESPITE FROM PRECIP WILL BE BRIEF WITH NEXT SHOT ALREADY COMING
IN TUE.

FCSTID = 33/DLF
OKC   72  62  75  60 /  90  60  30  40
HBR   72  59  75  60 /  90  60  30  40
SPS   74  62  77  62 /  90  40  20  40
GAG   70  58  73  56 / 100  60  30  40
PNC   70  62  75  60 /  90  60  30  40
DUA   76  64  78  62 /=  50  40  20  30

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251430-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
715 AM CDT WED OCT 25 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD...TO EL
RENO...TO WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE RISK AREA.

DISCUSSION...A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
TODAY...ENHANCING WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVER THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AHEAD
OF THIS SHORT WAVE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR AND CLOUD COVER...SOME STORMS
MAY STILL REACH SEVERE LEVELS AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION TODAY...AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION.

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