Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT WED OCT 25 2000

FIRST ROUND OF STORMS TODAY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  RAIN HAS STOP ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT A LOOK AT LBB AND AMA RADARS SHOW
ANOTHER AREA OF TSRA HEADED IN THAT DIRECTION.

LATEST ETA HAS 500 TO 700J/KG FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BETWEEN AMA
AND LBB.  GOOD UPPER JET COUPLET FORECAST OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  BETTER WIND PROFILES...BUT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL EVENTS.

WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

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OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251430-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
715 AM CDT WED OCT 25 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD...TO EL
RENO...TO WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE RISK AREA.

DISCUSSION...A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
TODAY...ENHANCING WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVER THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AHEAD
OF THIS SHORT WAVE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR AND CLOUD COVER...SOME STORMS
MAY STILL REACH SEVERE LEVELS AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION TODAY...AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION.

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