Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
330 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2000

CURRENTLY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
MIDSTATE...ALIGNED FROM JONESBORO-PADUCAH-LEXINGTON. PRETTY SOLID
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NW CWA...JUST
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. TEMPS ARE RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE INVADING FROM THE NW.

FORECAST CONCERNS...CHANCE...AND AREAL COVERAGE...OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THRU THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA.

CURRENT CONVECTION IN THE NW WILL AFFECT MANY AREAS OF THE WESTERN
CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL REFLECT THIS WITH A MENTION OF HIGHER POPS
IN A BROKEN DOWN TODAY PERIOD (THIS MORNING/REST OF TODAY).

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO MIDDLE OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE BASICALLY
FROM THE NW TO THE SE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THEREFORE...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHWEST...LEAST NE.

BY THIS EVENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DIP SOUTH OF MOST OF THE
CWA. AGAIN...HIGHEST THETA-E AIR WILL HANG ON IN THE FAR SW AREAS OF
THE MIDSTATE...AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL RESIDE THERE. FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ACTIVITY THERE...SO WILL GO WITH A
DIRECT MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FEEL THAT
COVERAGE WILL ONLY BE 30 PERCENT. SMALLEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU (ISOLATED AT BEST). ELSEWHERE SLIGHT CHANCES.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP A LITTLE LOWER THAN SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST. NORTH
PLATEAU AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP TO AGREEABLE FWC READINGS AROUND 60.

BY TOMORROW...MOST AREAS WILL BE OUT OF THE AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN
PROVIDING THE NEEDED RAINFALL. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE
COMMON...AND THE ONLY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED) WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHWEST CWA. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE STUBBORN TO
EXIT THIS AREA.

LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST HERE. SATURDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE SO MOSTLY CLEAR. AVN/ETA
SUGGESTIVE OF AN MCS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN NRN IL...BUT NGM
TRYING TO BRING THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...FAR ENUF TO WHERE
THICKNESS PATTERN COULD BRING AT LEAST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS INTO THE
NORTHWEST AREAS. ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURRING THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA. ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WEAK
LIFT DURING THE DAY...AND WITH HEATING...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WERE INTRODUCED. RAINFALL WILL NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL
THIS WEEKEND...AS IN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN...AND MOST OF THE FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NEXT
UPPER TROF SET FOR TUESDAY...AND CURRENT FORECAST CHANCE OF RAIN
STILL LOOKS GOOD.

AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL WARM UP EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...TRYING TO DRAW NEAR THE MID 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BNA 88/68/90/71 3211
CSV 83/61/85/64 21--

.BNA...NONE.

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TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-051030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
543 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2000

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE...THIS FRONT WILL BE ABLE
TO LIFT THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...AND RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE MIDSTATE THIS
MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL.

BY AFTERNOON...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE IN THE
SOUTHWEST AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AGAIN...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
EVERYWHERE HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

ACTIVATION1 OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS IS UNLIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

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