Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
330 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2000

CURRENTLY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
MIDSTATE...ALIGNED FROM JONESBORO-PADUCAH-LEXINGTON. PRETTY SOLID
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NW CWA...JUST
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. TEMPS ARE RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE INVADING FROM THE NW.

FORECAST CONCERNS...CHANCE...AND AREAL COVERAGE...OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THRU THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA.

CURRENT CONVECTION IN THE NW WILL AFFECT MANY AREAS OF THE WESTERN
CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL REFLECT THIS WITH A MENTION OF HIGHER POPS
IN A BROKEN DOWN TODAY PERIOD (THIS MORNING/REST OF TODAY).

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO MIDDLE OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE BASICALLY
FROM THE NW TO THE SE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THEREFORE...BEST
CHANCES SOUTHWEST...LEAST NE.

BY THIS EVENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DIP SOUTH OF MOST OF THE
CWA. AGAIN...HIGHEST THETA-E AIR WILL HANG ON IN THE FAR SW AREAS OF
THE MIDSTATE...AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL RESIDE THERE. FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ACTIVITY THERE...SO WILL GO WITH A
DIRECT MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FEEL THAT
COVERAGE WILL ONLY BE 30 PERCENT. SMALLEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU (ISOLATED AT BEST). ELSEWHERE SLIGHT CHANCES.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP A LITTLE LOWER THAN SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST. NORTH
PLATEAU AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP TO AGREEABLE FWC READINGS AROUND 60.

BY TOMORROW...MOST AREAS WILL BE OUT OF THE AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN
PROVIDING THE NEEDED RAINFALL. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE
COMMON...AND THE ONLY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED) WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHWEST CWA. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE STUBBORN TO
EXIT THIS AREA.

LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST HERE. SATURDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE SO MOSTLY CLEAR. AVN/ETA
SUGGESTIVE OF AN MCS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN NRN IL...BUT NGM
TRYING TO BRING THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...FAR ENUF TO WHERE
THICKNESS PATTERN COULD BRING AT LEAST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS INTO THE
NORTHWEST AREAS. ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURRING THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA. ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WEAK
LIFT DURING THE DAY...AND WITH HEATING...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WERE INTRODUCED. RAINFALL WILL NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL
THIS WEEKEND...AS IN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN...AND MOST OF THE FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NEXT
UPPER TROF SET FOR TUESDAY...AND CURRENT FORECAST CHANCE OF RAIN
STILL LOOKS GOOD.

AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL WARM UP EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...TRYING TO DRAW NEAR THE MID 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BNA 88/68/90/71 3211
CSV 83/61/85/64 21--

.BNA...NONE.

DICKSON 15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE,TN
1138 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0705 PM    5 N CLARKSVILLE           TN   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
08/03/00   MONTGOMERY

0710 PM    CLARKSVILLE               TN   WIND DAMAGE
08/03/00   MONTGOMERY                     TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED
                                          TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN
                                          DOWN

0815 PM    ERIN                      TN   .75 INCH HAIL
08/03/00   HOUSTON                        REPORT BY EMA

0825 PM    10 W WHITE HOUSE          TN   .75 INCH HAIL
08/03/00   ROBERTSON

0900 PM    4 S GALLATIN              TN   WIND DAMAGE
08/03/00   SUMNER                         LAW ENFORCEMENT
                                          REPORTED LARGE TREE BLOWN
                                          DOWN.

0937 PM    8 N WAVERLY               TN   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/03/00   HUMPHREYS

SH