Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2000

COLD FRONT IS HARD TO DISCERN BUT WOULD PLACE LOCATION BETWEEN BNA
AND CSV. AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT IS BECOMING QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MSAS
LIFTED INDICES ALREADY NEARING -6 ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL OF THE VALLEY. GIVEN INCOMING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT PULLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WOULD EXPECT CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR OVER
THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WORDING OF SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS
EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. GIVEN THE LOWERING WBZ
AND DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID-LEVELS...MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

FRONT SWEEPS EAST EARLY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
STRATU-CU MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT...MEMORIAL DAY AND
THEN PULLING OUT MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  ALSO...SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MEMORIAL DAY. SINCE I AM FORECASTING MORE CLOUDS FOR MEMORIAL
DAY WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TOMORROW.

LARGE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
EXPECT DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE VALLEY.

THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ARE FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY:

FCSTID = 15
CHA   58  80  57  87 /  10   0   0   0
TYS   57  75  56  85 /  30   0   0   0
TRI   56  71  51  80 /  60  30   5   0
OQT   57  76  56  85 /  20   0   0   0

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-282000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
943 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2000

...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST
TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...FROM THE MID AFTERNOON TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LATE THIS MORNING...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM WEST AND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ACTING AS A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA.  DUE TO THE EXPECTED
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE REGION AND COLD AIR ALOFT...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE
AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MOST
UNSTABLE. THE CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE AS YOU
GO SOUTH AND WEST.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS DEFINED AS ANY STORM WITH WINDS
OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OR HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
DIAMETER OR LARGER.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA.  PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

DH