Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
215 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2000

INTERESTING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS TO EAST KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA ARE PRODUCING
AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONE AREA IS MOVING ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN VIRGINIA/WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND ANOTHER OVER
ARKANSAS APPROACHING WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST INTO THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING. MSAS SHOWS LIFTED INSTABILITIES BETWEEN
-5 AND -7 WITH CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. FAIRLY DECENT SPEED SHEAR
NOTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 850 MB AROUND 40 KTS WHICH MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. PLAN ON INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE FOR TONIGHT.

I EXPECT A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE EVENING UNTIL 3 OR
4 AM SUNDAY MORNING WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON LAPSES RATES INCREASE WITH LIFTED INDICES
OF DROPPING TO -4 TO -7...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE
INCREASING LAPSE RATES...LOWERING WBZ AND DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS...
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS...MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A GOOD DEAL OF WRAP-ARND MOISTURE MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ARE FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY:

FCSTID = 15
CHA   69  84  59  84 /  70  60  10   0
TYS   69  78  59  77 /  70  80  30   5
TRI   64  77  57  74 /  80  90  60  30
OQT   68  77  58  77 /  80  80  40   5

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

DH

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-280800-

SPECIAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2000

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MORRISTOWN TENNESSEE...THAT INCLUDES EASTERN TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

A VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN SO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO KEEP A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...THAT
MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS DEFINED AS ANY STORM THAT
CONTAINS WIND SPEEDS OF 56 MPH OR HIGHER...AND/OR CONTAINS HAIL
THREE-QUARTERS INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVITY TONIGHT. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
COMMERCIAL RADIO...TV AND CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

DM

TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-280400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
630 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR ALL OF EAST
TENNESSEE...AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EAST TENNESSEE
...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.  STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OUT OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ALSO RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...AS WELL AS HAIL OF
DIME SIZE OR LARGER.  VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WERE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS IN YOUR COUNTY THIS EVENING.
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD STANDBY FOR
ACTIVATION.  STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TG