Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2000

FCST FOCUS ON FLASH FLOOD THREAT TNGT AND THUR.

ALL PROGS ZERO ON SRN WISC FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED PD OF WX THRU FRI.

IN THE SHORT TERM...ETA/NGM/RUC AND UWNMS MODELS BRING TOGETHER A
NUMBER OF WX FEATURES FAVORABLE FOR A HVY RAIN EVENT TNGT AND THU
MRNG. AT H3 PERSIST DIVERGENCE ALNG WITH COUPLED JET OVR CWA TO
PROVIDE UPPER DYNAMICS. MAIN H5 VORT ENTERS AREA AFT 12Z THU. A
SERIES OF STG H7 UVV CENTERS ROLL ACRS RGN. HOWEVER...THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE FEATURES ARE THE H8 PROGS WHICH DEVELOP STG 50-60 KT LLJ
WITH DEW PTS OVR 12C JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WI OVERNITE. THIS ALLOWS
VERY IMPRESSIVE VALUES OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE TO SET UP OVR SRN WISC
MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 15Z THU. MKE/MSN TIME XSECTIONS QUITE SCARY AS
THEY DEPICT DOUBLE BARREL UVV LATE TNGT AND ERLY THU OVER VERY
MOIST AMS. RUC AND NGM ONLY DIFFER FROM OTHER PROGS WITH A MORE
NORTHERLY LOCATION OF ABOVE FEATURES WHICH COULD LEAD TO HIGHER PCPN
VALUES FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

HOWEVER...FEEL THAT PCPN THAT HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF OVR SRN WIS/NRN
IL TDA HAS KEPT WARM FNT SURPRESSED FAR ENUF SOUTH...THAT DESPITE
STG LOW LVL JET...BNDRY SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO ETA/AVN SOLTN.  FAR
SRN TIER OF CWA COUNTIES HV PICKED UP BETWEEN 0.25 AND 1.5 INCHES
IN THE PAST 3 HRS. RIVERS OVER CWA REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND
12Z FLASH FLOOD GUID IS BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2.5 INCHES FOR 6 HRS. BUT ETA
PUMPING OUT OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN THRU 18Z THU....WITH EQUALLY
HIGH AMOUNTS FROM UWNMS MODEL.  THUS CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TNGT AND THU MRNG FOR ALL OF CWA.

IN THE FAR TERM...WILL NEED TO EXTEND PCPN INTO THU NIGHT AND FRI
AS ETA AND AVN PROGS TAKE SYSTEM ON A SLOWER TRACK SOUTH OF CWA THAN
NGM. SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND SOME UNCERTAINTY OF FNTL BNDRY
COULD RAISE CHC THAT ANOTHER DECENT SURGE OF PCPN COULD PASS ACRSS
FAR SRN PTNS OF CWA LATE THU. BUT WILL LET FURTHER PROG RUNS LOOK
AT THIS.

EXPECTING A PRETTY RAW DAY THU AND FRI DUE TO BRISK NE WINDS. HAVE
LEANED TWD 3HR TEMPS IN THIS REGARD.

.UWNMS...SIMILAR TO ETA AS 20 KM RUN BULLSEYE 3HR PCPN OVR CWA
BETWEEN 06Z TO 09Z WITH UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF PCPN.

.MKX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TNGT AND THURSDAY MRNG..ZNS WIZ046-047-051-
                                                 052-056>060-062>072
ZAJDEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
407 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM    REWEY                     WI   1 INCH HAIL
05/17/00   IOWA                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0213 PM    3 NW BELMONT              WI   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/17/00   LAFAYETTE                      REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0218 PM    BELMONT                   WI   .75 INCH HAIL
05/17/00   LAFAYETTE                      REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.