Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
215 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2000

GOING INTO A CLOUDY AND OCNL WET PERIOD. UPR LVL TROF ADVANCES
EWD TO THE ERN US AND H5 RDG OFF THE ATLC COAST MOVES FURTHER EWD
NXT 48 TO 60 HRS. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...CDFNT WL PUSH INTO THE AREA
TNGT BUT THEN STALL OVR THE CWA WED THRU THU AS UPR LVL FLO BACKS IN
RESPONSE TO H5 HGT FALLS TO OUR W AS MORE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE BASE
OF THE UPR LVL TROF. SERIES OF SHRTWVS COMING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
TROF WL RESULT IN SFC WAVES DVLPG ALONG THE WAVY FRONT OVR THE AREA
LATE WED INTO THU AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI.

NGM/AVN AND ETA ALL OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON TIMING OF SFC WAVES UP
AND ALONG THE WAVY FRONT. MODELS OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTY IN TIMING SUCH
SYSTEMS IN AND OUT OF THE AREA IN SUCH A PATTERN. DISPARITY IS SEEN IN
THE NGM/AVN POP AND QPF FIELDS. WL LEAVE POPS OUT (HIDDEN 20) FAR NW ZNS ON
WED WHERE I THINK SOME DRIER AIR MAY TEMPORARILY MOVE INTO THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...I AM ONLY CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO WITH CHC POPS 1ST THRU 4TH
PDS.

FRONT HANGS AROUND INTO FRI SO WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS IN THE FCST. BY
SAT/SUN...MRF INDICATES THE ERN US TROF WL MOVE EWD AND H5 RDG WL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHUD CAUSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR THE AREA TO
MOVE OFFSHR. THUS...AFTER A WEEK FILLED WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA
THERE IS STILL HOPE FOR A SUNNY WEEKEND.

FCSTID = 15
DCA   68  83  F70  77 /  50  40  50  50
BWI   68  82  70  77 /  50  40  50  50
MRB   63  82  64  76 /  50  20  50  50

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.