Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2000

LOOKS LIKE BIG SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MAY BE JUST A FEW HOURS AWAY.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE IS
SITUATED FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF KLBB TO NEAR KLBB TO
EAST OF KMAF. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 3000
J/KG CAPE WILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SUPERCELLS
AFTER CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHICH WE EXPECT AROUND 3 PM. WINDS WILL
BE BACKED OFF THE CAPROCK AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. ALSO BOUNDARY EXISTS
TO NORTHEAST WHICH MAY COME INTO PLAY LATER TODAY. EXPECT DRYLINE TO
MIX EAST OF CAPROCK NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS PER UPDATED SWODY1...WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING SOON THEREAFTER.

MAY HAVE TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM KCDS
SOUTHWARD INTO LOW ROLLING PLAINS WITH STORM TOTALS FROM LAST NIGHTS
STORMS AT LEAST 3 TO 4 INCHES KENT AND STONEWALL COUNTIES...AND
GREATER THAN 5 INCHES NORTH OF CHILDRESS. FRONT TO BARREL SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.

HAVE REQUESTED AN 18Z SOUNDING FROM KAMA. THANKS KAMA.

.LBB...NONE.

JAMES

TXZ023>026-029>032-301600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1017 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2000

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM HAS BEEN
CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

SWISHER...BRISCOE...HALL...CHILDRESS...HALE...FLOYD...MOTLEY AND
COTTLE

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TV...OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

JAMES

TXZ021>044-301900-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2000

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE MODERATE RISK
AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MATADOR TO SPUR TO
SNYDER. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM PLAINVIEW TO POST
TO BIG SPRING. THE LUBBOCK METRO AREA IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING. SEVERAL FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. IN
ADDITION A VERY PRONOUNCED DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RISK AREAS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE...DAMAGING HAIL...HIGH
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND TORNADOES. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
WEATHER...FLOODING RAINS MAY ALSO DEVELOP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES WERE COMMON ACROSS
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CAP ROCK LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER THIS MORNING.
SHOULD HEAVY RAINS DEVELOP...FLOODING WILL BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS IS A DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. PEOPLE ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TV...OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LUBBOCK.

ST