Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2000

SEVERAL PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS MAY PLAY OUT THIS FORECAST DEPENDING ON
EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE FEATURES. LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH UPPER LOW VICINITY
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AT THIS TIME FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
NICELY SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BELIEVE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG DRYLINE...
NOW ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER...AS NOSE OF UPPER JET MOVES CLOSER TO
WEST TEXAS. WITH UPPER LOW STILL TO OUR WEST DO NOT BELIEVE DRYLINE
WILL PUNCH EASTWARD TOO FAR ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL
STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AGAIN DEPENDING
ON LOCATION OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. JET DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE OF A FACTOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD FRONT ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
A FACTOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTENDED DUE TO PROXIMITY OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.

FRIONA/TULIA       54/78/48/68 5433   CHILDRESS 60/78/53/71 6464
BROWNFIELD/LUBBOCK 57/82/52/72 5344   ASPERMONT 63/84/58/75 6464

.LBB...NONE.
GLP