Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVG N AND E OF THE CWFA BY 00Z
SAT...ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB CNVG AHD OF 30-40 KT SWLY JET...AND AHD
OF SHRTWV TROF MOVG NEWD THRU SERN NEBRASKA.  WRMFNT EXTDG FM W
CNTRL MO SE THRU EXTRM SERN MO WL MOV NWD AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION LTR TGT OVR NRN AND CNTRL MO...ALNG WITH CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES FM MRNG AND AFTN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  AVN MDL HAS
BEST 850 MB MOISTURE CNVG AND WAA NE OF CWFA TGT...ALTHOUGH ETA
MDL HAS VEERING LLJ FURTHER S WITH 850 MB CNVG OVR CNTRL AND
SERN MO LT TGT.  WL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS OVR NRN PTN OF CWFA ALNG
AND N OF WRMFNT...WITH MORE SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED FURTHER S ALNG
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LTR TGT WITH PARTIAL CLRG THIS EVNG FM
THE SW TO THE NE S OF WRMFNT.  TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH TGT...WL
LIKELY RISE A FEW DGRS IN NERN PTN OF CWFA WITH SFC DWPTS RISING INTO
THE MID-UPR 60S ALNG WRMFNT.  AVN MDL STILL LOOKS A LTL QUICK WITH
CDFNT DROPPING SEWD THRU AREA ON SAT AND SAT NGT...AND PREFER THE
SLOWER ETA TIMING.  WL ALSO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WRMR FWC TEMPS ON SAT.

.STL...NONE
GKS